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Okzhetpes vs Kyzyl-Zhar Prediction— Kazakhstan - Premier League

Saturday, August 22, 2026, 12:00

Okzhetpes

PPG 2.00 · HOME

LAST 5

LWLWW

UPCOMING

Kyzyl-Zhar

PPG 0.90 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWDDL

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

Model probability 54.9% vs bookmaker-implied 56.8%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.7%0-15.6%0-22.4%0-30.7%0-4+0.2%1 1-012.5%1-110.5%1-24.4%1-31.2%1-4+0.3%2 2-011.6%2-19.8%2-24.1%2-31.2%2-4+0.3%3 3-07.2%3-16.1%3-22.6%3-30.7%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-05.1%4+-14.3%4+-21.8%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 54.8% 54.9% 1.82 -0.3%

Draw 22.8% 29.9% 3.35 -14.2%

Away win 22.4% 28.6% 3.50 -13.0%

Over 2.5 53.9% 58.8% 1.70 -8.4%

Over 3.5 31.6% 36.4% 2.75 -13.1%

BTTS 53.4% 63.7% 1.57 -16.2%

Home O1.5 54.9% 56.8% 1.76 -3.4%

Away O1.5 22.7% 35.1% 2.85 -21.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 38 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 61%

O2.5 61%

BTTS 42%

Score Hit 42%

ROI 28.4%

Bet Hit 75%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 38%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.9 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob53.4%

H 55% / xG 1.9-0.8 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.5%

#2 2–0 11.6%

#3 1–0 12.5%

#4 2–1 9.8%

#5 0–0 6.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Okzhetpes1.9

Kyzyl-Zhar0.8

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.9% · O3.5 PROB 31.6%

Form & verdict PPG

OKZHETPES · PPG 2.00

KYZYL-ZHAR · PPG 0.90

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.02 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Okzhetpes (H) 54.8%

ODDS 1.82 · IMPLIED 54.9% EV -0.3%

Draw 22.8%

ODDS 3.35 · IMPLIED 29.9% EV -14.2%

Kyzyl-Zhar (A) 22.4%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -13.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Okzhetpes face Kyzyl-Zhar in Kazakhstan - Premier League on Saturday, August 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Okzhetpes a 55% chance, the draw 23% and Kyzyl-Zhar 22%, so Okzhetpes are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for Okzhetpes and 0.8 for Kyzyl-Zhar (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Okzhetpes are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 0.90 for Kyzyl-Zhar.

Okzhetpes vs Kyzyl-Zhar Prediction— Kazakhstan - Premier League

Match Preview & Prediction

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