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Yelimay Semey vs Kairat Almaty Prediction— Kazakhstan - Premier League

Matchday 24 ·Monday, August 31, 2026, 14:00

Yelimay Semey

PPG 1.50 · HOME

LAST 5

DDWDL

0 – 2

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Kairat Almaty

PPG 2.18 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWWWW

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 54.2% vs bookmaker-implied 60.6%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.9%0-111.7%0-27.8%0-33.4%0-4+1.5%1 1-09.7%1-112.9%1-28.5%1-33.8%1-4+1.7%2 2-05.3%2-17.1%2-24.7%2-32.1%2-4+0.9%3 3-02.0%3-12.6%3-21.7%3-30.8%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-00.7%4+-10.9%4+-20.6%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 30.8% 32.3% 3.10 -4.5%

Draw 26.4% 28.6% 3.50 -4.6%

Away win 42.8% 50.0% 2.00 -14.4%

Over 2.5 51.0% 56.5% 1.77 -9.7%

Over 3.5 31.6% 33.9% 2.95 -6.8%

BTTS 54.2% 60.6% 1.65 -10.6%

Home O1.5 30.8% 38.5% 2.60 -19.9%

Away O1.5 42.2% 51.8% 1.93 -18.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 38 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 61%

O2.5 61%

BTTS 42%

Score Hit 42%

ROI 28.4%

Bet Hit 75%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 22%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-2

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob54.2%

A 43% / xG 1.1-1.3 / O2.5 51% / BTTS 54%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.9%

#2 0–1 11.7%

#3 1–2 8.5%

#4 0–0 8.9%

#5 0–2✓ 7.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Yelimay Semey1.1

Kairat Almaty1.3

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 51.0% · O3.5 PROB 31.6%

Form & verdict PPG

YELIMAY SEMEY · PPG 1.50

KAIRAT ALMATY · PPG 2.18

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected | No clear v...

45%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap -0.23, combined xG 2.42 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Yelimay Semey (H) 30.8%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -4.5%

Draw 26.4%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -4.6%

Kairat Almaty (A) 42.8%

ODDS 2.00 · IMPLIED 50.0% EV -14.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Yelimay Semey face Kairat Almaty in Kazakhstan - Premier League on Monday, August 31, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Yelimay Semey a 31% chance, the draw 26% and Kairat Almaty 43%, so Kairat Almaty are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Yelimay Semey and 1.3 for Kairat Almaty (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 54% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Yelimay Semey are averaging 1.50 points per game versus 2.18 for Kairat Almaty. This match finished 0-2.

Yelimay Semey vs Kairat Almaty Prediction— Kazakhstan - Premier League

Match Preview & Prediction

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