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Atyrau vs FC Astana Prediction— Kazakhstan - Premier League

Matchday 24 ·Sunday, August 30, 2026, 15:00

Atyrau

PPG 1.00 · HOME

LAST 5

LDDLL

2 – 3

FULL TIME

FC Astana

PPG 0.80 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWWDW

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-015.9%0-114.5%0-26.6%0-32.0%0-4+0.6%1 1-014.7%1-113.4%1-26.1%1-31.9%1-4+0.5%2 2-06.8%2-16.2%2-22.8%2-30.9%2-4+0.2%3 3-02.1%3-11.9%3-20.9%3-30.3%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-00.6%4+-10.5%4+-20.2%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 33.2% 18.2% 5.50 +82.6%

Draw 31.8% 28.6% 3.50 +11.3%

Away win 34.9% 63.7% 1.57 -45.2%

Over 2.5 37.8% 51.3% 1.95 -26.3%

Over 3.5 19.0% 32.5% 3.08 -24.9%

BTTS 47.2% 54.1% 1.85 -12.7%

Home O1.5 30.9% 23.1% 4.33 +33.8%

Away O1.5 25.7% 58.1% 1.72 -33.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 38 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 61%

O2.5 61%

BTTS 42%

Score Hit 42%

ROI 28.4%

Bet Hit 75%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 46%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-3

xG (home)0.9 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob47.2%

D 32% / xG 0.9-0.9 / U2.5 38% / NoBTTS 47%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 15.9%

#2 0–1 14.5%

#3 1–1 13.4%

#4 1–0 14.7%

#5 0–2 6.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Atyrau0.9

FC Astana0.9

COMBINED 1.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 37.8% · O3.5 PROB 19.0%

Form & verdict PPG

ATYRAU · PPG 1.00

FC ASTANA · PPG 0.80

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.01, combined xG 1.84 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Atyrau (H) 33.2%

ODDS 5.50 · IMPLIED 18.2% EV +82.6%

Draw 31.8%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV +11.3%

FC Astana (A) 34.9%

ODDS 1.57 · IMPLIED 63.7% EV -45.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Atyrau face FC Astana in Kazakhstan - Premier League on Sunday, August 30, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Atyrau a 33% chance, the draw 32% and FC Astana 35%, so FC Astana are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.9 for Atyrau and 0.9 for FC Astana (1.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 38% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 47% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Atyrau are averaging 1.00 points per game versus 0.80 for FC Astana. The best value bet our model finds is HomeO15, with an expected value of +33.8%. This match finished 2-3.

Atyrau vs FC Astana Prediction— Kazakhstan - Premier League

Match Preview & Prediction

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