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Kaspiy vs FK Tobol Kostanay Prediction— Kazakhstan - Premier League

Matchday 24 ·Sunday, August 30, 2026, 12:00

Kaspiy

PPG 1.50 · HOME

LAST 5

WLDDW

1 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

FK Tobol Kostanay

PPG 0.42 · AWAY

LAST 5

WLWWL

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 54.3% vs bookmaker-implied 59.9%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.1%0-16.9%0-23.4%0-31.1%0-4+0.3%1 1-011.9%1-111.6%1-25.6%1-31.8%1-4+0.5%2 2-09.9%2-19.7%2-24.7%2-31.5%2-4+0.5%3 3-05.5%3-15.4%3-22.6%3-30.8%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-03.4%4+-13.3%4+-21.6%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 50.1% 31.3% 3.20 +60.3%

Draw 23.9% 30.3% 3.30 -12.7%

Away win 25.9% 50.0% 2.00 -28.9%

Over 2.5 53.5% 55.6% 1.80 -3.7%

Over 3.5 31.5% 37.0% 2.70 -14.9%

BTTS 54.3% 59.9% 1.67 -9.3%

Home O1.5 48.9% 39.5% 2.53 +23.7%

Away O1.5 27.1% 51.8% 1.93 -28.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 38 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 61%

O2.5 61%

BTTS 42%

Score Hit 42%

ROI 28.4%

Bet Hit 75%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 34%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob54.3%

H 50% / xG 1.7-1.0 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 54%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.6%

#2 1–0✓ 11.9%

#3 2–0 9.9%

#4 2–1 9.7%

#5 0–0 7.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Kaspiy1.7

FK Tobol Kostanay1.0

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.5% · O3.5 PROB 31.5%

Form & verdict PPG

KASPIY · PPG 1.50

FK TOBOL KOSTANAY · PPG 0.42

✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.70 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Kaspiy (H) 50.1%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV +60.3%

Draw 23.9%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -12.7%

FK Tobol Kostanay (A) 25.9%

ODDS 2.00 · IMPLIED 50.0% EV -28.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Kaspiy face FK Tobol Kostanay in Kazakhstan - Premier League on Sunday, August 30, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Kaspiy a 50% chance, the draw 24% and FK Tobol Kostanay 26%, so Kaspiy are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Kaspiy and 1.0 for FK Tobol Kostanay (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 54% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Kaspiy are averaging 1.50 points per game versus 0.42 for FK Tobol Kostanay. The best value bet our model finds is RES_H/O15, with an expected value of +62.6%. This match finished 1-0.

Kaspiy vs FK Tobol Kostanay Prediction— Kazakhstan - Premier League

Match Preview & Prediction

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