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Ulytau vs Zhetysu Prediction— Kazakhstan - Premier League

Matchday 24 ·Saturday, August 29, 2026, 12:00

Ulytau

PPG 1.82 · HOME

LAST 5

LLDLW

3 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Zhetysu

PPG 0.83 · AWAY

LAST 5

LDLLL

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 52.7% vs bookmaker-implied 55.6%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.0%0-17.4%0-23.0%0-30.8%0-4+0.2%1 1-014.3%1-111.7%1-24.8%1-31.3%1-4+0.3%2 2-011.4%2-19.3%2-23.8%2-31.0%2-4+0.3%3 3-06.0%3-14.9%3-22.0%3-30.6%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-03.4%4+-12.8%4+-21.2%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 52.6% 45.5% 2.20 +15.7%

Draw 24.2% 34.5% 2.90 -17.9%

Away win 23.2% 31.3% 3.20 -15.5%

Over 2.5 50.5% 46.5% 2.15 +8.6%

Over 3.5 29.8% 27.0% 3.70 +6.2%

BTTS 52.7% 55.6% 1.80 -5.1%

Home O1.5 47.9% 42.9% 2.33 +11.6%

Away O1.5 23.5% 32.9% 3.04 -17.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 38 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 61%

O2.5 61%

BTTS 42%

Score Hit 42%

ROI 28.4%

Bet Hit 75%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 27%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-0

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob52.7%

H 53% / xG 1.6-0.8 / O2.5 50% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 14.3%

#2 1–1 11.7%

#3 2–0 11.4%

#4 2–1 9.3%

#5 0–0 9.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Ulytau1.6

Zhetysu0.8

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.5% · O3.5 PROB 29.8%

Form & verdict PPG

ULYTAU · PPG 1.82

ZHETYSU · PPG 0.83

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.77 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Ulytau (H) 52.6%

ODDS 2.20 · IMPLIED 45.5% EV +15.7%

Draw 24.2%

ODDS 2.90 · IMPLIED 34.5% EV -17.9%

Zhetysu (A) 23.2%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -15.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Ulytau face Zhetysu in Kazakhstan - Premier League on Saturday, August 29, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Ulytau a 53% chance, the draw 24% and Zhetysu 23%, so Ulytau are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Ulytau and 0.8 for Zhetysu (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Ulytau are averaging 1.82 points per game versus 0.83 for Zhetysu. The best value bet our model finds is HomeO15, with an expected value of +11.6%. This match finished 3-0.

Ulytau vs Zhetysu Prediction— Kazakhstan - Premier League

Match Preview & Prediction

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