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GrIFK vs Ilves II Prediction— Finland - Kakkonen Group B

Group B · Matchday 18 ·Saturday, August 22, 2026, 12:00

GrIFK

PPG 1.50 · HOME

LAST 5

LWLWW

3 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Ilves II

PPG 1.25 · AWAY

LAST 5

WLWLL

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.5 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 64.8% vs bookmaker-implied 78.1%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.1%0-16.5%0-26.7%0-34.6%0-4+3.9%1 1-04.4%1-19.0%1-29.3%1-36.5%1-4+5.4%2 2-03.0%2-16.3%2-26.5%2-34.5%2-4+3.8%3 3-01.4%3-12.9%3-23.0%3-32.1%3-4+1.8%4+ 4+-00.7%4+-11.4%4+-21.4%4+-31.0%4+-4+0.8%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 25.6% 28.6% 3.50 -6.2%

Draw 21.5% 26.7% 3.75 -11.6%

Away win 52.9% 57.1% 1.75 -7.4%

Over 2.5 64.8% 78.1% 1.28 -17.1%

Over 3.5 43.5% 59.9% 1.67 -27.4%

BTTS 63.0% 76.9% 1.30 -18.1%

Home O1.5 39.4% 47.6% 2.10 -17.3%

Away O1.5 56.0% 73.5% 1.36 -23.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 54 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 69%

O2.5 65%

BTTS 65%

Score Hit 44%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 58%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-2

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)2.1 BTTS prob63.0%

A 53% / xG 1.4-2.1 / O2.5 65% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–2 9.3%

#2 1–1 9.0%

#3 0–2 6.7%

#4 2–1 6.3%

#5 1–3 6.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

GrIFK1.4

Ilves II2.1

COMBINED 3.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 64.8% · O3.5 PROB 43.5%

Form & verdict PPG

GRIFK · PPG 1.50

ILVES II · PPG 1.25

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team | No clear value

45%

DANGER

xG gap -0.68 - moderate Away edge

Win probability 1X2

GrIFK (H) 25.6%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -6.2%

Draw 21.5%

ODDS 3.75 · IMPLIED 26.7% EV -11.6%

Ilves II (A) 52.9%

ODDS 1.75 · IMPLIED 57.1% EV -7.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

GrIFK face Ilves II in Finland - Kakkonen Group B on Saturday, August 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives GrIFK a 26% chance, the draw 22% and Ilves II 53%, so Ilves II are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for GrIFK and 2.1 for Ilves II (3.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-2. There is a 65% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, GrIFK are averaging 1.50 points per game versus 1.25 for Ilves II. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +5.1%. This match finished 3-2.

GrIFK vs Ilves II Prediction— Finland - Kakkonen Group B

Match Preview & Prediction

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