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Honka vs P-Iirot Prediction— Finland - Kakkonen Group B

Group B ·Friday, August 28, 2026, 14:30

Honka

PPG 2.33 · HOME

LAST 5

LWWWD

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME

P-Iirot

PPG 0.67 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWLLD

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 69.4% vs bookmaker-implied 87.0%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.4%0-12.2%0-21.0%0-30.3%0-4+0.1%1 1-06.9%1-16.2%1-22.8%1-30.8%1-4+0.2%2 2-09.7%2-18.7%2-23.9%2-31.2%2-4+0.3%3 3-09.1%3-18.1%3-23.7%3-31.1%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-012.7%4+-111.4%4+-25.1%4+-31.5%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 69.4% 87.0% 1.15 -20.2%

Draw 15.9% 15.4% 6.50 +2.0%

Away win 14.7% 8.3% 12.00 +45.8%

Over 2.5 68.2% 82.0% 1.22 -16.8%

Over 3.5 45.0% 63.7% 1.57 -29.3%

BTTS 55.0% 62.5% 1.60 -12.0%

Home O1.5 67.8% 85.5% 1.17 -20.7%

Away O1.5 25.7% 30.8% 3.25 -9.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 54 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 69%

O2.5 65%

BTTS 65%

Score Hit 44%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 67%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)2.8 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob55.0%

H 69% / xG 2.8-0.9 / O2.5 68% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 9.7%

#2 3–0 9.1%

#3 2–1 8.7%

#4 3–1 8.1%

#5 1–1✓ 6.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Honka2.8

P-Iirot0.9

COMBINED 3.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 68.2% · O3.5 PROB 45.0%

Form & verdict PPG

HONKA · PPG 2.33

P-IIROT · PPG 0.67

✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value

95%

STRONG_HOME

xG gap +1.92 for Home, form 2.33 vs 0.67 - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Honka (H) 69.4%

ODDS 1.15 · IMPLIED 87.0% EV -20.2%

Draw 15.9%

ODDS 6.50 · IMPLIED 15.4% EV +2.0%

P-Iirot (A) 14.7%

ODDS 12.00 · IMPLIED 8.3% EV +45.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Honka face P-Iirot in Finland - Kakkonen Group B on Friday, August 28, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Honka a 69% chance, the draw 16% and P-Iirot 15%, so Honka are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.8 for Honka and 0.9 for P-Iirot (3.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 68% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Honka are averaging 2.33 points per game versus 0.67 for P-Iirot. The best value bet our model finds is A/BTTS, with an expected value of +43.7%. This match finished 1-1.

Honka vs P-Iirot Prediction— Finland - Kakkonen Group B

Match Preview & Prediction

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