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EPS vs HJS Akatemia Prediction— Finland - Kakkonen Group B

Group B · Matchday 18 ·Saturday, August 22, 2026, 12:00

EPS

PPG 1.75 · HOME

LAST 5

WWWWW

2 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

HJS Akatemia

PPG 1.88 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWLLL

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.1 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 62.8% vs bookmaker-implied 66.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.3%0-15.9%0-24.0%0-31.8%0-4+0.8%1 1-07.7%1-110.5%1-27.1%1-33.2%1-4+1.5%2 2-06.9%2-19.3%2-26.3%2-32.9%2-4+1.3%3 3-04.1%3-15.6%3-23.8%3-31.7%3-4+0.8%4+ 4+-02.7%4+-13.7%4+-22.5%4+-31.1%4+-4+0.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 47.6% 43.5% 2.30 +9.5%

Draw 23.2% 30.3% 3.30 -14.1%

Away win 29.3% 40.0% 2.50 -16.1%

Over 2.5 62.8% 66.7% 1.50 -5.8%

Over 3.5 39.4% 45.5% 2.20 -13.3%

BTTS 61.3% 69.4% 1.44 -11.7%

Home O1.5 48.8% 52.4% 1.91 -6.8%

Away O1.5 41.2% 54.6% 1.83 -24.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 54 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 69%

O2.5 65%

BTTS 65%

Score Hit 44%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 44%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-0

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob61.3%

H 48% / xG 1.8-1.4 / O2.5 63% / BTTS 61%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.5%

#2 2–1 9.3%

#3 1–2 7.1%

#4 2–0✓ 6.9%

#5 1–0 7.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

EPS1.8

HJS Akatemia1.4

COMBINED 3.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 62.8% · O3.5 PROB 39.4%

Form & verdict PPG

EPS · PPG 1.75

HJS AKATEMIA · PPG 1.88

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.43 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

EPS (H) 47.6%

ODDS 2.30 · IMPLIED 43.5% EV +9.5%

Draw 23.2%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -14.1%

HJS Akatemia (A) 29.3%

ODDS 2.50 · IMPLIED 40.0% EV -16.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

EPS face HJS Akatemia in Finland - Kakkonen Group B on Saturday, August 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives EPS a 48% chance, the draw 23% and HJS Akatemia 29%, so EPS are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for EPS and 1.4 for HJS Akatemia (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 63% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 61% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, EPS are averaging 1.75 points per game versus 1.88 for HJS Akatemia. The best value bet our model finds is H/BTTS, with an expected value of +1.5%. This match finished 2-0.

EPS vs HJS Akatemia Prediction— Finland - Kakkonen Group B

Match Preview & Prediction

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