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EPS vs Honka Prediction— Finland - Kakkonen Group B

Group B ·Wednesday, September 2, 2026, 15:30

EPS

PPG 2.00 · HOME

UPCOMING

Honka

PPG 2.44 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.6 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 68.1% vs bookmaker-implied 76.9%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.7%0-15.6%0-25.9%0-34.1%0-4+3.5%1 1-04.1%1-18.5%1-29.0%1-36.3%1-4+5.3%2 2-03.1%2-16.5%2-26.8%2-34.8%2-4+4.1%3 3-01.6%3-13.3%3-23.5%3-32.4%3-4+2.1%4+ 4+-00.8%4+-11.8%4+-21.9%4+-31.3%4+-4+1.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 34.8% 23.1% 4.33 +50.7%

Draw 20.9% 23.1% 4.33 -5.7%

Away win 44.4% 65.4% 1.53 -32.1%

Over 2.5 68.1% 76.9% 1.30 -11.5%

Over 3.5 45.0% 57.8% 1.73 -22.1%

BTTS 63.5% 71.4% 1.40 -11.1%

Home O1.5 40.8% 42.0% 2.38 -2.9%

Away O1.5 58.6% 75.2% 1.33 -22.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 54 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 69%

O2.5 65%

BTTS 65%

Score Hit 44%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 55%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)2.1 BTTS prob63.5%

A 44% / xG 1.5-2.1 / O2.5 68% / BTTS 64%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 8.5%

#2 2–1 6.5%

#3 1–2 9.0%

#4 2–2 6.8%

#5 1–3 6.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

EPS1.5

Honka2.1

COMBINED 3.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 68.1% · O3.5 PROB 45.0%

Form & verdict PPG

EPS · PPG 2.00

HONKA · PPG 2.44

⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team

65%

DANGER

xG gap -0.57 - moderate Away edge

Win probability 1X2

EPS (H) 34.8%

ODDS 4.33 · IMPLIED 23.1% EV +50.7%

Draw 20.9%

ODDS 4.33 · IMPLIED 23.1% EV -5.7%

Honka (A) 44.4%

ODDS 1.53 · IMPLIED 65.4% EV -32.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

EPS face Honka in Finland - Kakkonen Group B on Wednesday, September 2, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives EPS a 35% chance, the draw 21% and Honka 44%, so Honka are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for EPS and 2.1 for Honka (3.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 68% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 64% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, EPS are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 2.44 for Honka. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +33.0%.

EPS vs Honka Prediction— Finland - Kakkonen Group B

Match Preview & Prediction

More Finland - Kakkonen Group B Predictions