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EBK vs Honka Prediction— Finland - Kakkonen Group B

Group B · Matchday 18 ·Saturday, August 22, 2026, 12:00

EBK

PPG 1.00 · HOME

LAST 5

LLLWL

0 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · AWAY O1.5

Honka

PPG 2.38 · AWAY

LAST 5

LWWWD

// Model verdict

Away Over 1.5

Model probability 80.0% vs bookmaker-implied 87.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.1%0-13.8%0-26.4%0-37.2%0-4+14.2%1 1-01.3%1-14.2%1-27.1%1-38.0%1-4+15.9%2 2-00.7%2-12.4%2-24.0%2-34.5%2-4+8.9%3 3-00.3%3-10.9%3-21.5%3-31.7%3-4+3.3%4+ 4+-00.1%4+-10.3%4+-20.5%4+-30.6%4+-4+1.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 13.8% 8.3% 12.00 +39.4%

Draw 16.1% 14.3% 7.00 +7.6%

Away win 70.1% 87.7% 1.14 -20.1%

Over 2.5 73.6% 83.3% 1.20 -11.7%

Over 3.5 54.7% 69.9% 1.43 -21.8%

BTTS 63.2% 66.7% 1.50 -5.2%

Home O1.5 30.6% 28.7% 3.48 +6.5%

Away O1.5 80.0% 87.7% 1.14 -8.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 54 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 69%

O2.5 65%

BTTS 65%

Score Hit 44%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 4 74%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-2

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)3.4 BTTS prob63.2%

A 70% / xG 1.1-3.4 / O2.5 74% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–3 8.0%

#2 0–3 7.2%

#3 1–2 7.1%

#4 1–1 4.2%

#5 1–4 6.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

EBK1.1

Honka3.4

COMBINED 4.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 73.6% · O3.5 PROB 54.7%

Form & verdict PPG

EBK · PPG 1.00

HONKA · PPG 2.38

✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum

90%

UPSET_VALUE

xG gap -2.25 for Away, form 1.00 vs 2.38

Win probability 1X2

EBK (H) 13.8%

ODDS 12.00 · IMPLIED 8.3% EV +39.4%

Draw 16.1%

ODDS 7.00 · IMPLIED 14.3% EV +7.6%

Honka (A) 70.1%

ODDS 1.14 · IMPLIED 87.7% EV -20.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

EBK face Honka in Finland - Kakkonen Group B on Saturday, August 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives EBK a 14% chance, the draw 16% and Honka 70%, so Honka are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for EBK and 3.4 for Honka (4.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-3. There is a 74% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, EBK are averaging 1.00 points per game versus 2.38 for Honka. The best value bet our model finds is H/BTTS, with an expected value of +51.2%. This match finished 0-2.

EBK vs Honka Prediction— Finland - Kakkonen Group B

Match Preview & Prediction

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