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NJS vs Musa Prediction— Finland - Kakkonen Group B

Group B · Matchday 18 ·Saturday, August 22, 2026, 12:00

NJS

PPG 0.00 · HOME

LAST 5

LLLLL 

1 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Musa

PPG 0.50 · AWAY

LAST 5

LLLLW

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.2 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 63.4% vs bookmaker-implied 75.2%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.0%0-16.4%0-25.2%0-32.8%0-4+1.6%1 1-06.4%1-110.4%1-28.3%1-34.5%1-4+2.6%2 2-05.2%2-18.4%2-26.7%2-33.6%2-4+2.1%3 3-02.8%3-14.5%3-23.6%3-31.9%3-4+1.1%4+ 4+-01.6%4+-12.6%4+-22.1%4+-31.1%4+-4+0.6%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 40.3% 35.7% 2.80 +12.8%

Draw 23.2% 28.6% 3.50 -11.3%

Away win 36.5% 48.8% 2.05 -25.2%

Over 2.5 63.4% 75.2% 1.33 -15.7%

Over 3.5 41.8% 54.6% 1.83 -23.5%

BTTS 63.2% 75.2% 1.33 -15.9%

Home O1.5 47.4% 50.0% 2.00 -5.2%

Away O1.5 48.5% 66.7% 1.50 -27.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 54 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 69%

O2.5 65%

BTTS 65%

Score Hit 44%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 43%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-2

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)1.6 BTTS prob63.2%

H 40% / xG 1.6-1.6 / O2.5 63% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.4%

#2 2–1 8.4%

#3 1–2✓ 8.3%

#4 2–2 6.7%

#5 2–0 5.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

NJS1.6

Musa1.6

COMBINED 3.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.4% · O3.5 PROB 41.8%

Form & verdict PPG

NJS · PPG 0.00

MUSA · PPG 0.50

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.01 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

NJS (H) 40.3%

ODDS 2.80 · IMPLIED 35.7% EV +12.8%

Draw 23.2%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -11.3%

Musa (A) 36.5%

ODDS 2.05 · IMPLIED 48.8% EV -25.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

NJS face Musa in Finland - Kakkonen Group B on Saturday, August 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives NJS a 40% chance, the draw 23% and Musa 37%, so NJS are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for NJS and 1.6 for Musa (3.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 63% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, NJS are averaging 0.00 points per game versus 0.50 for Musa. The best value bet our model finds is H/BTTS, with an expected value of +7.5%. This match finished 1-2.

NJS vs Musa Prediction— Finland - Kakkonen Group B

Match Preview & Prediction

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