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HJS Akatemia vs Ilves II Prediction— Finland - Kakkonen Group B

Group B ·Wednesday, September 2, 2026, 15:30

HJS Akatemia

PPG 1.78 · HOME

UPCOMING

Ilves II

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.7 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 67.5% vs bookmaker-implied 73.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.5%0-14.4%0-24.0%0-32.4%0-4+1.6%1 1-04.7%1-18.4%1-27.6%1-34.5%1-4+3.1%2 2-04.5%2-18.0%2-27.2%2-34.3%2-4+2.9%3 3-02.8%3-15.1%3-24.6%3-32.8%3-4+1.9%4+ 4+-02.1%4+-13.8%4+-23.4%4+-32.0%4+-4+1.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 37.9% 40.8% 2.45 -7.1%

Draw 20.9% 25.0% 4.00 -9.8%

Away win 41.2% 45.5% 2.20 -9.4%

Over 2.5 67.5% 73.5% 1.36 -8.2%

Over 3.5 45.0% 52.4% 1.91 -14.1%

BTTS 63.5% 71.4% 1.40 -11.1%

Home O1.5 55.8% 57.8% 1.73 -3.5%

Away O1.5 47.9% 55.6% 1.80 -13.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 54 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 69%

O2.5 65%

BTTS 65%

Score Hit 44%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 54%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.9 xG (away)1.8 BTTS prob63.5%

A 41% / xG 1.9-1.8 / O2.5 68% / BTTS 64%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–2 7.6%

#2 1–1 8.4%

#3 2–1 8.0%

#4 2–2 7.2%

#5 1–3 4.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

HJS Akatemia1.9

Ilves II1.8

COMBINED 3.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 67.5% · O3.5 PROB 45.0%

Form & verdict PPG

HJS AKATEMIA · PPG 1.78

ILVES II · PPG 1.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.11 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

HJS Akatemia (H) 37.9%

ODDS 2.45 · IMPLIED 40.8% EV -7.1%

Draw 20.9%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV -9.8%

Ilves II (A) 41.2%

ODDS 2.20 · IMPLIED 45.5% EV -9.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

HJS Akatemia face Ilves II in Finland - Kakkonen Group B on Wednesday, September 2, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives HJS Akatemia a 38% chance, the draw 21% and Ilves II 41%, so Ilves II are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for HJS Akatemia and 1.8 for Ilves II (3.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-2. There is a 68% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 64% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, HJS Akatemia are averaging 1.78 points per game versus 1.00 for Ilves II. The best value bet our model finds is H/BTTS, with an expected value of +0.8%.

HJS Akatemia vs Ilves II Prediction— Finland - Kakkonen Group B

Match Preview & Prediction

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