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P-Iirot vs ÅIFK Prediction— Finland - Kakkonen Group B

Group B · Matchday 18 ·Saturday, August 22, 2026, 12:00

P-Iirot

PPG 2.62 · HOME

LAST 5

WWLLD

1 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

ÅIFK

PPG 2.50 · AWAY

LAST 5

LWLWW

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 54.7% vs bookmaker-implied 71.4%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.9%0-19.3%0-26.3%0-32.8%0-4+1.3%1 1-09.1%1-112.3%1-28.3%1-33.7%1-4+1.7%2 2-06.1%2-18.2%2-25.5%2-32.5%2-4+1.1%3 3-02.7%3-13.6%3-22.4%3-31.1%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-01.2%4+-11.6%4+-21.1%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 39.3% 43.5% 2.30 -9.6%

Draw 25.5% 30.8% 3.25 -10.3%

Away win 35.3% 40.0% 2.50 -11.8%

Over 2.5 53.9% 69.4% 1.44 -22.4%

Over 3.5 31.6% 47.6% 2.10 -33.6%

BTTS 54.7% 71.4% 1.40 -23.4%

Home O1.5 37.8% 55.2% 1.81 -31.6%

Away O1.5 41.2% 52.6% 1.90 -21.7%

League track record ↗

Based on 54 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 69%

O2.5 65%

BTTS 65%

Score Hit 44%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 28%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-2

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob54.7%

H 39% / xG 1.3-1.4 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.3%

#2 2–1 8.2%

#3 1–0 9.1%

#4 1–2✓ 8.3%

#5 0–0 6.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

P-Iirot1.3

ÅIFK1.4

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.9% · O3.5 PROB 31.6%

Form & verdict PPG

P-IIROT · PPG 2.62

ÅIFK · PPG 2.50

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

xG gap -0.02 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

P-Iirot (H) 39.3%

ODDS 2.30 · IMPLIED 43.5% EV -9.6%

Draw 25.5%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV -10.3%

ÅIFK (A) 35.3%

ODDS 2.50 · IMPLIED 40.0% EV -11.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

P-Iirot face ÅIFK in Finland - Kakkonen Group B on Saturday, August 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives P-Iirot a 39% chance, the draw 26% and ÅIFK 35%, so P-Iirot are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for P-Iirot and 1.4 for ÅIFK (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, P-Iirot are averaging 2.62 points per game versus 2.50 for ÅIFK. This match finished 1-2.

P-Iirot vs ÅIFK Prediction— Finland - Kakkonen Group B

Match Preview & Prediction

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