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Atyrau vs Kairat Almaty Prediction— Kazakhstan

Regular Season - 18 ·Saturday, July 18, 2026, 15:00

Atyrau

PPG 1.29 · HOME

UPCOMING

Kairat Almaty

PPG 2.10 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-017.6%0-118.7%0-29.9%0-33.5%0-4+1.2%1 1-011.9%1-112.6%1-26.7%1-32.4%1-4+0.8%2 2-04.0%2-14.3%2-22.3%2-30.8%2-4+0.3%3 3-00.9%3-11.0%3-20.5%3-30.2%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-00.2%4+-10.2%4+-20.1%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 23.8% 17.4% 5.75 +22.1%

Draw 29.9% 27.4% 3.65 +5.5%

Away win 46.3% 65.4% 1.53 -29.2%

Over 2.5 44.0% 47.6% 2.10 -7.6%

Over 3.5 24.9% 26.7% 3.75 -4.0%

BTTS 48.5% 48.8% 2.05 -0.6%

Home O1.5 33.3% 22.2% 4.50 +49.9%

Away O1.5 36.2% 56.5% 1.77 -35.9%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

0 – 2 29%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)0.7 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob48.5%

A 46% / xG 0.7-1.1 / U2.5 44% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 17.6%

#2 0–1 18.7%

#3 1–1 12.6%

#4 1–0 11.9%

#5 0–2 9.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Atyrau0.7

Kairat Almaty1.1

COMBINED 1.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 44.0% · O3.5 PROB 24.9%

Form & verdict PPG

ATYRAU · PPG 1.29

KAIRAT ALMATY · PPG 2.10

✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum

90%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: EXCELLENT form (2.10) vs Home AVERAGE (1.29)

Win probability 1X2

Atyrau (H) 23.8%

ODDS 5.75 · IMPLIED 17.4% EV +22.1%

Draw 29.9%

ODDS 3.65 · IMPLIED 27.4% EV +5.5%

Kairat Almaty (A) 46.3%

ODDS 1.53 · IMPLIED 65.4% EV -29.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Atyrau face Kairat Almaty in Kazakhstan on Saturday, July 18, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Atyrau a 24% chance, the draw 30% and Kairat Almaty 46%, so Kairat Almaty are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.7 for Atyrau and 1.1 for Kairat Almaty (1.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 44% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Atyrau are averaging 1.29 points per game versus 2.10 for Kairat Almaty. The best value bet our model finds is HomeO15, with an expected value of +49.9%.

Atyrau vs Kairat Almaty Prediction— Kazakhstan

Match Preview & Prediction

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