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PuiU Helsinki vs Reipas Prediction— Finland

Group A ·Saturday, July 18, 2026, 14:00

PuiU Helsinki

PPG 1.17 · HOME

UPCOMING

Reipas

PPG 0.50 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.4 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 63.9% vs bookmaker-implied 73.5%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.4%0-16.3%0-25.7%0-33.4%0-4+2.4%1 1-05.3%1-19.7%1-28.8%1-35.3%1-4+3.7%2 2-04.1%2-17.5%2-26.8%2-34.1%2-4+2.8%3 3-02.1%3-13.9%3-23.5%3-32.1%3-4+1.5%4+ 4+-01.2%4+-12.1%4+-21.9%4+-31.2%4+-4+0.8%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 36.7% 35.7% 2.80 +2.8%

Draw 22.4% 30.3% 3.30 -15.7%

Away win 40.9% 46.5% 2.15 -12.1%

Over 2.5 63.9% 73.5% 1.36 -13.1%

Over 3.5 41.6% 54.6% 1.83 -23.9%

BTTS 63.4% 73.5% 1.36 -13.8%

Home O1.5 46.6% 52.4% 1.91 -11.0%

Away O1.5 50.2% 65.4% 1.53 -23.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 6 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 17%

O2.5 50%

BTTS 67%

Score Hit 33%

ROI -31.2%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 46%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)1.8 BTTS prob63.4%

A 41% / xG 1.6-1.8 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.7%

#2 1–2 8.8%

#3 2–1 7.5%

#4 2–2 6.8%

#5 0–2 5.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

PuiU Helsinki1.6

Reipas1.8

COMBINED 3.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.9% · O3.5 PROB 41.6%

Form & verdict PPG

PUIU HELSINKI · PPG 1.17

REIPAS · PPG 0.50

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.17) > Away POOR (0.50)

Win probability 1X2

PuiU Helsinki (H) 36.7%

ODDS 2.80 · IMPLIED 35.7% EV +2.8%

Draw 22.4%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -15.7%

Reipas (A) 40.9%

ODDS 2.15 · IMPLIED 46.5% EV -12.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

PuiU Helsinki face Reipas in Finland on Saturday, July 18, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives PuiU Helsinki a 37% chance, the draw 22% and Reipas 41%, so Reipas are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for PuiU Helsinki and 1.8 for Reipas (3.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, PuiU Helsinki are averaging 1.17 points per game versus 0.50 for Reipas. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +2.8%.

PuiU Helsinki vs Reipas Prediction— Finland

Match Preview & Prediction

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