Today / Finland / Kiffen vs PEPO

Kiffen vs PEPO Prediction— Finland

Group A ·Saturday, July 18, 2026, 14:00

Kiffen

PPG 2.40 · HOME

UPCOMING

PEPO

PPG 1.33 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.4 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 66.8% vs bookmaker-implied 71.4%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.2%0-14.3%0-22.9%0-31.3%0-4+0.6%1 1-06.7%1-19.0%1-26.1%1-32.7%1-4+1.2%2 2-07.1%2-19.5%2-26.4%2-32.8%2-4+1.3%3 3-04.9%3-16.6%3-24.4%3-32.0%3-4+0.9%4+ 4+-04.2%4+-15.6%4+-23.8%4+-31.7%4+-4+0.8%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 54.3% 52.4% 1.91 +3.7%

Draw 22.1% 26.7% 3.75 -10.3%

Away win 23.6% 34.5% 2.90 -18.9%

Over 2.5 66.8% 71.4% 1.40 -6.5%

Over 3.5 44.5% 52.4% 1.91 -15.0%

BTTS 63.5% 71.4% 1.40 -11.1%

Home O1.5 62.9% 65.4% 1.53 -3.8%

Away O1.5 38.8% 45.5% 2.20 -14.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 6 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 17%

O2.5 50%

BTTS 67%

Score Hit 33%

ROI -31.2%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 59%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.1 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob63.5%

H 54% / xG 2.1-1.3 / O2.5 67% / BTTS 64%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.0%

#2 2–1 9.5%

#3 2–0 7.1%

#4 3–1 6.6%

#5 2–2 6.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Kiffen2.1

PEPO1.3

COMBINED 3.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 66.8% · O3.5 PROB 44.5%

Form & verdict PPG

KIFFEN · PPG 2.40

PEPO · PPG 1.33

✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

80%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.40) vs P(Home)=54.3%

Win probability 1X2

Kiffen (H) 54.3%

ODDS 1.91 · IMPLIED 52.4% EV +3.7%

Draw 22.1%

ODDS 3.75 · IMPLIED 26.7% EV -10.3%

PEPO (A) 23.6%

ODDS 2.90 · IMPLIED 34.5% EV -18.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Kiffen face PEPO in Finland on Saturday, July 18, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Kiffen a 54% chance, the draw 22% and PEPO 24%, so Kiffen are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.1 for Kiffen and 1.3 for PEPO (3.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 67% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 64% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Kiffen are averaging 2.40 points per game versus 1.33 for PEPO. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +3.7%.

Kiffen vs PEPO Prediction— Finland

Match Preview & Prediction

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