Today / Finland / HPS vs MYPA

HPS vs MYPA Prediction— Finland

Group A ·Saturday, July 18, 2026, 14:00

HPS

PPG 1.17 · HOME

UPCOMING

MYPA

PPG 1.40 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.2 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 63.9% vs bookmaker-implied 73.5%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.0%0-14.4%0-22.5%0-30.9%0-4+0.3%1 1-08.4%1-19.4%1-25.2%1-31.9%1-4+0.7%2 2-08.8%2-19.9%2-25.5%2-32.1%2-4+0.7%3 3-06.2%3-16.9%3-23.9%3-31.4%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-05.3%4+-15.9%4+-23.3%4+-31.2%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 55.7% 66.7% 1.50 -16.4%

Draw 22.1% 25.0% 4.00 -7.0%

Away win 22.3% 20.8% 4.80 +4.2%

Over 2.5 63.9% 73.5% 1.36 -13.1%

Over 3.5 40.1% 54.6% 1.83 -26.6%

BTTS 60.9% 71.4% 1.40 -14.7%

Home O1.5 62.9% 71.4% 1.40 -11.9%

Away O1.5 36.2% 45.5% 2.20 -20.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 6 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 17%

O2.5 50%

BTTS 67%

Score Hit 33%

ROI -31.2%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 52%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.1 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob60.9%

H 56% / xG 2.1-1.1 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 61%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.4%

#2 2–1 9.9%

#3 2–0 8.8%

#4 1–0 8.4%

#5 3–1 6.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

HPS2.1

MYPA1.1

COMBINED 3.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.9% · O3.5 PROB 40.1%

Form & verdict PPG

HPS · PPG 1.17

MYPA · PPG 1.40

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

60%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.17), Away AVERAGE (1.40)

Win probability 1X2

HPS (H) 55.7%

ODDS 1.50 · IMPLIED 66.7% EV -16.4%

Draw 22.1%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV -7.0%

MYPA (A) 22.3%

ODDS 4.80 · IMPLIED 20.8% EV +4.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

HPS face MYPA in Finland on Saturday, July 18, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives HPS a 56% chance, the draw 22% and MYPA 22%, so HPS are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.1 for HPS and 1.1 for MYPA (3.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 61% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, HPS are averaging 1.17 points per game versus 1.40 for MYPA. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +4.2%.

HPS vs MYPA Prediction— Finland

Match Preview & Prediction

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