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Zhenys vs Ulytau Prediction— Kazakhstan

Regular Season - 18 ·Saturday, July 18, 2026, 13:00

Zhenys

PPG 1.50 · HOME

UPCOMING

Ulytau

PPG 0.75 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-020.6%0-113.5%0-24.4%0-31.0%0-4+0.2%1 1-019.0%1-112.5%1-24.1%1-30.9%1-4+0.2%2 2-08.8%2-15.8%2-21.9%2-30.4%2-4+0.1%3 3-02.7%3-11.8%3-20.6%3-30.1%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-00.8%4+-10.5%4+-20.2%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 43.0% 55.6% 1.80 -22.6%

Draw 32.2% 30.8% 3.25 +4.7%

Away win 24.8% 24.4% 4.10 +1.0%

Over 2.5 36.5% 47.6% 2.10 -23.4%

Over 3.5 15.3% 27.0% 3.70 -26.0%

BTTS 46.3% 54.1% 1.85 -14.3%

Home O1.5 33.3% 51.3% 1.95 -35.1%

Away O1.5 21.6% 28.2% 3.55 -14.0%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 34%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)0.9 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob46.3%

H 43% / xG 0.9-0.7 / U2.5 36% / NoBTTS 46%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 20.6%

#2 1–0 19.0%

#3 1–1 12.5%

#4 0–1 13.5%

#5 2–0 8.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Zhenys0.9

Ulytau0.7

COMBINED 1.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 36.5% · O3.5 PROB 15.3%

Form & verdict PPG

ZHENYS · PPG 1.50

ULYTAU · PPG 0.75

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.50) > Away POOR (0.75)

Win probability 1X2

Zhenys (H) 43.0%

ODDS 1.80 · IMPLIED 55.6% EV -22.6%

Draw 32.2%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV +4.7%

Ulytau (A) 24.8%

ODDS 4.10 · IMPLIED 24.4% EV +1.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Zhenys face Ulytau in Kazakhstan on Saturday, July 18, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Zhenys a 43% chance, the draw 32% and Ulytau 25%, so Zhenys are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.9 for Zhenys and 0.7 for Ulytau (1.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 37% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 46% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Zhenys are averaging 1.50 points per game versus 0.75 for Ulytau. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +4.7%.

Zhenys vs Ulytau Prediction— Kazakhstan

Match Preview & Prediction

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