Today / Kazakhstan / Kyzylzhar vs Tobol

Kyzylzhar vs Tobol Prediction— Kazakhstan

Regular Season - 18 ·Saturday, July 18, 2026, 13:00

Kyzylzhar

PPG 1.11 · HOME

UPCOMING

Tobol

PPG 0.11 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 2.9 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 60.9% vs bookmaker-implied 51.3% — a clear edge.

+18.8% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.4%0-16.0%0-23.3%0-31.2%0-4+0.4%1 1-09.7%1-110.8%1-26.0%1-32.2%1-4+0.8%2 2-08.8%2-19.8%2-25.5%2-32.0%2-4+0.7%3 3-05.3%3-15.9%3-23.3%3-31.2%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-03.6%4+-14.0%4+-22.2%4+-30.8%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 49.5% 35.7% 2.80 +38.6%

Draw 22.9% 31.3% 3.20 -16.0%

Away win 27.6% 43.5% 2.30 -21.9%

Over 2.5 60.9% 51.3% 1.95 +18.8%

Over 3.5 37.4% 29.0% 3.45 +29.0%

BTTS 55.5% 57.8% 1.73 -4.0%

Home O1.5 53.0% 38.5% 2.60 +37.8%

Away O1.5 36.2% 44.4% 2.25 -18.6%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 47%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob55.5%

H 50% / xG 1.8-1.1 / O2.5 61% / BTTS 56%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.8%

#2 2–1 9.8%

#3 2–0 8.8%

#4 1–0 9.7%

#5 0–0 5.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Kyzylzhar1.8

Tobol1.1

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 60.9% · O3.5 PROB 37.4%

Form & verdict PPG

KYZYLZHAR · PPG 1.11

TOBOL · PPG 0.11

🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned

95%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: AVERAGE form (1.11) vs P(Home)=49.5%

Win probability 1X2

Kyzylzhar (H) 49.5%

ODDS 2.80 · IMPLIED 35.7% EV +38.6%

Draw 22.9%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -16.0%

Tobol (A) 27.6%

ODDS 2.30 · IMPLIED 43.5% EV -21.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Kyzylzhar face Tobol in Kazakhstan on Saturday, July 18, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Kyzylzhar a 50% chance, the draw 23% and Tobol 28%, so Kyzylzhar are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Kyzylzhar and 1.1 for Tobol (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 56% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Kyzylzhar are averaging 1.11 points per game versus 0.11 for Tobol. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +66.7%.

Kyzylzhar vs Tobol Prediction— Kazakhstan

Match Preview & Prediction

More Kazakhstan Predictions