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Union Plaani vs Atlantis Prediction— Finland

Group A · Matchday 13 ·Saturday, July 18, 2026, 13:00

Union Plaani

PPG 0.67 · HOME

LAST 5

WLLWW

3 – 6

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Atlantis

PPG 0.67 · AWAY

LAST 5

DWWWL

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 4.5 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 72.3% vs bookmaker-implied 83.3%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.1%0-13.2%0-24.7%0-34.6%0-4+6.9%1 1-01.8%1-15.1%1-27.5%1-37.3%1-4+10.9%2 2-01.4%2-14.0%2-25.9%2-35.8%2-4+8.6%3 3-00.7%3-12.1%3-23.1%3-33.0%3-4+4.5%4+ 4+-00.4%4+-11.2%4+-21.7%4+-31.7%4+-4+2.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 22.4% 25.0% 4.00 -6.2%

Draw 17.1% 23.8% 4.20 -16.9%

Away win 60.5% 63.7% 1.57 -5.0%

Over 2.5 72.3% 83.3% 1.20 -13.2%

Over 3.5 52.3% 66.7% 1.50 -21.6%

BTTS 69.3% 80.0% 1.25 -13.4%

Home O1.5 48.2% 47.6% 2.10 +1.2%

Away O1.5 69.1% 80.0% 1.25 -13.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 10 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 40%

O2.5 60%

BTTS 70%

Score Hit 30%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 4 69%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-6

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)2.9 BTTS prob69.3%

A 60% / xG 1.6-2.9 / O2.5 72% / BTTS 69%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–2 7.5%

#2 1–3 7.3%

#3 2–2 5.9%

#4 1–1 5.1%

#5 2–3 5.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Union Plaani1.6

Atlantis2.9

COMBINED 4.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 72.3% · O3.5 PROB 52.3%

Form & verdict PPG

UNION PLAANI · PPG 0.67

ATLANTIS · PPG 0.67

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

60%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home POOR (0.67), Away POOR (0.67)

Win probability 1X2

Union Plaani (H) 22.4%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV -6.2%

Draw 17.1%

ODDS 4.20 · IMPLIED 23.8% EV -16.9%

Atlantis (A) 60.5%

ODDS 1.57 · IMPLIED 63.7% EV -5.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Union Plaani face Atlantis in Finland on Saturday, July 18, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Union Plaani a 22% chance, the draw 17% and Atlantis 61%, so Atlantis are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Union Plaani and 2.9 for Atlantis (4.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-2. There is a 72% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 69% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Union Plaani are averaging 0.67 points per game versus 0.67 for Atlantis. The best value bet our model finds is HomeO15, with an expected value of +1.2%. This match finished 3-6.

Union Plaani vs Atlantis Prediction— Finland

Match Preview & Prediction

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