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Okzhetpes vs Zhetysu Prediction— Kazakhstan

Regular Season - 18 ·Saturday, July 18, 2026, 12:00

Okzhetpes

PPG 1.78 · HOME

UPCOMING

Zhetysu

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.3 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 63.9% vs bookmaker-implied 51.8% — a clear edge.

+23.3% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.6%0-14.6%0-23.0%0-31.3%0-4+0.6%1 1-07.3%1-19.4%1-26.1%1-32.6%1-4+1.1%2 2-07.4%2-19.6%2-26.2%2-32.7%2-4+1.1%3 3-05.0%3-16.5%3-24.2%3-31.8%3-4+0.8%4+ 4+-04.1%4+-15.3%4+-23.4%4+-31.5%4+-4+0.6%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 49.8% 52.4% 1.91 -4.9%

Draw 22.1% 30.3% 3.30 -16.2%

Away win 28.1% 27.8% 3.60 +0.7%

Over 2.5 63.9% 51.8% 1.93 +23.3%

Over 3.5 40.6% 29.9% 3.35 +36.0%

BTTS 62.4% 57.8% 1.73 +8.0%

Home O1.5 58.9% 51.3% 1.95 +14.8%

Away O1.5 37.7% 33.3% 3.00 +13.1%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 51%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.0 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob62.4%

H 50% / xG 2.0-1.3 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.4%

#2 2–1 9.6%

#3 2–0 7.4%

#4 3–1 6.5%

#5 2–2 6.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Okzhetpes2.0

Zhetysu1.3

COMBINED 3.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.9% · O3.5 PROB 40.6%

Form & verdict PPG

OKZHETPES · PPG 1.78

ZHETYSU · PPG 1.00

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.78) > Away AVERAGE (1.00)

Win probability 1X2

Okzhetpes (H) 49.8%

ODDS 1.91 · IMPLIED 52.4% EV -4.9%

Draw 22.1%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -16.2%

Zhetysu (A) 28.1%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV +0.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Okzhetpes face Zhetysu in Kazakhstan on Saturday, July 18, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Okzhetpes a 50% chance, the draw 22% and Zhetysu 28%, so Okzhetpes are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.0 for Okzhetpes and 1.3 for Zhetysu (3.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Okzhetpes are averaging 1.78 points per game versus 1.00 for Zhetysu. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +36.0%.

Okzhetpes vs Zhetysu Prediction— Kazakhstan

Match Preview & Prediction

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