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Daejeon Citizen vs Ulsan Hyundai FC Prediction— South Korea - K League 1

Matchday 25 ·Wednesday, August 26, 2026, 10:30

Daejeon Citizen

PPG 0.92 · HOME

LAST 5

WLWWL

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Ulsan Hyundai FC

PPG 1.75 · AWAY

LAST 5

WLLLW

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 55.0% vs bookmaker-implied 64.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.9%0-110.0%0-27.3%0-33.5%0-4+1.8%1 1-08.4%1-112.2%1-28.9%1-34.3%1-4+2.2%2 2-05.1%2-17.5%2-25.4%2-32.6%2-4+1.3%3 3-02.1%3-13.0%3-22.2%3-31.1%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-00.8%4+-11.2%4+-20.9%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 36.3% 44.4% 2.25 -18.3%

Draw 24.6% 28.2% 3.55 -7.6%

Away win 39.1% 34.5% 2.90 +13.4%

Over 2.5 53.5% 58.8% 1.70 -9.0%

Over 3.5 31.7% 36.4% 2.75 -12.8%

BTTS 55.0% 64.5% 1.55 -14.8%

Home O1.5 33.1% 50.0% 2.00 -33.8%

Away O1.5 40.9% 42.6% 2.35 -3.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 62 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 34%

O2.5 48%

BTTS 45%

Score Hit 53%

ROI -23.8%

Bet Hit 41%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 28%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-1

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob55.0%

A 39% / xG 1.2-1.5 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.2%

#2 2–1✓ 7.5%

#3 1–2 8.9%

#4 1–0 8.4%

#5 0–1 10.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Daejeon Citizen1.2

Ulsan Hyundai FC1.5

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.5% · O3.5 PROB 31.7%

Form & verdict PPG

DAEJEON CITIZEN · PPG 0.92

ULSAN HYUNDAI FC · PPG 1.75

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap -0.23 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Daejeon Citizen (H) 36.3%

ODDS 2.25 · IMPLIED 44.4% EV -18.3%

Draw 24.6%

ODDS 3.55 · IMPLIED 28.2% EV -7.6%

Ulsan Hyundai FC (A) 39.1%

ODDS 2.90 · IMPLIED 34.5% EV +13.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Daejeon Citizen face Ulsan Hyundai FC in South Korea - K League 1 on Wednesday, August 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Daejeon Citizen a 36% chance, the draw 25% and Ulsan Hyundai FC 39%, so Ulsan Hyundai FC are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Daejeon Citizen and 1.5 for Ulsan Hyundai FC (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Daejeon Citizen are averaging 0.92 points per game versus 1.75 for Ulsan Hyundai FC. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +2.0%. This match finished 2-1.

Daejeon Citizen vs Ulsan Hyundai FC Prediction— South Korea - K League 1

Match Preview & Prediction

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