Today / South Korea - K League 1 / FC Anyang vs Incheon United

FC Anyang vs Incheon United Prediction— South Korea - K League 1

Matchday 25 ·Wednesday, August 26, 2026, 10:30

FC Anyang

PPG 0.92 · HOME

LAST 5

LLLWD

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Incheon United

PPG 1.73 · AWAY

LAST 5

DDWLD

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 2.8 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 57.0% vs bookmaker-implied 47.6% — a clear edge.

+19.7% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.3%0-110.9%0-29.5%0-35.5%0-4+3.5%1 1-06.5%1-111.2%1-29.8%1-35.7%1-4+3.6%2 2-03.3%2-15.8%2-25.0%2-32.9%2-4+1.9%3 3-01.1%3-12.0%3-21.7%3-31.0%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-00.4%4+-10.6%4+-20.5%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 22.9% 32.3% 3.10 -17.4%

Draw 22.0% 31.3% 3.20 -17.8%

Away win 55.1% 43.5% 2.30 +26.7%

Over 2.5 57.0% 47.6% 2.10 +19.7%

Over 3.5 35.9% 26.0% 3.85 +38.2%

BTTS 54.3% 54.6% 1.83 -0.6%

Home O1.5 30.9% 33.9% 2.95 -8.8%

Away O1.5 47.9% 42.6% 2.35 +12.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 62 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 34%

O2.5 48%

BTTS 45%

Score Hit 53%

ROI -23.8%

Bet Hit 41%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 43%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-1

xG (home)1.0 xG (away)1.7 BTTS prob54.3%

A 55% / xG 1.0-1.7 / O2.5 57% / BTTS 54%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.2%

#2 1–2 9.8%

#3 0–2 9.5%

#4 0–1 10.9%

#5 0–0 6.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

FC Anyang1.0

Incheon United1.7

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 57.0% · O3.5 PROB 35.9%

Form & verdict PPG

FC ANYANG · PPG 0.92

INCHEON UNITED · PPG 1.73

⚠ CAUTION - Home form weak, consider away

65%

DANGER

xG gap -0.71 - moderate Away edge

Win probability 1X2

FC Anyang (H) 22.9%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -17.4%

Draw 22.0%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -17.8%

Incheon United (A) 55.1%

ODDS 2.30 · IMPLIED 43.5% EV +26.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

FC Anyang face Incheon United in South Korea - K League 1 on Wednesday, August 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives FC Anyang a 23% chance, the draw 22% and Incheon United 55%, so Incheon United are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for FC Anyang and 1.7 for Incheon United (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 57% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 54% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, FC Anyang are averaging 0.92 points per game versus 1.73 for Incheon United. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +38.2%. This match finished 2-1.

FC Anyang vs Incheon United Prediction— South Korea - K League 1

Match Preview & Prediction

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