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Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC Prediction— South Korea - K League 1

Matchday 26 ·Saturday, August 29, 2026, 10:30

Ulsan Hyundai FC

PPG 1.33 · HOME

LAST 5

WLLLW

3 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Gimcheon Sangmu FC

PPG 1.23 · AWAY

LAST 5

DDDDL

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 52.7% vs bookmaker-implied 62.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.4%0-19.3%0-25.8%0-32.4%0-4+1.0%1 1-010.0%1-112.5%1-27.8%1-33.3%1-4+1.3%2 2-06.8%2-18.5%2-25.3%2-32.2%2-4+0.9%3 3-03.0%3-13.8%3-22.4%3-31.0%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-01.4%4+-11.7%4+-21.1%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 37.7% 52.6% 1.90 -28.4%

Draw 27.0% 27.0% 3.70 -0.1%

Away win 35.4% 26.7% 3.75 +32.8%

Over 2.5 50.5% 58.8% 1.70 -14.1%

Over 3.5 28.9% 35.7% 2.80 -11.5%

BTTS 52.7% 62.5% 1.60 -15.7%

Home O1.5 38.0% 55.6% 1.80 -31.6%

Away O1.5 36.6% 36.4% 2.75 +0.7%

League track record ↗

Based on 62 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 34%

O2.5 48%

BTTS 45%

Score Hit 53%

ROI -23.8%

Bet Hit 41%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 21%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-1

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob52.7%

H 38% / xG 1.4-1.2 / O2.5 50% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.5%

#2 2–1 8.5%

#3 1–2 7.8%

#4 0–0 7.4%

#5 1–0 10.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Ulsan Hyundai FC1.4

Gimcheon Sangmu FC1.3

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.5% · O3.5 PROB 28.9%

Form & verdict PPG

ULSAN HYUNDAI FC · PPG 1.33

GIMCHEON SANGMU FC · PPG 1.23

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

70%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.10 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Ulsan Hyundai FC (H) 37.7%

ODDS 1.90 · IMPLIED 52.6% EV -28.4%

Draw 27.0%

ODDS 3.70 · IMPLIED 27.0% EV -0.1%

Gimcheon Sangmu FC (A) 35.4%

ODDS 3.75 · IMPLIED 26.7% EV +32.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Ulsan Hyundai FC face Gimcheon Sangmu FC in South Korea - K League 1 on Saturday, August 29, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Ulsan Hyundai FC a 38% chance, the draw 27% and Gimcheon Sangmu FC 35%, so Ulsan Hyundai FC are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Ulsan Hyundai FC and 1.3 for Gimcheon Sangmu FC (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Ulsan Hyundai FC are averaging 1.33 points per game versus 1.23 for Gimcheon Sangmu FC. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +7.6%. This match finished 3-1.

Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC Prediction— South Korea - K League 1

Match Preview & Prediction

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