Today / South Korea - K League 1 / FC Seoul vs Bucheon FC 1995

FC Seoul vs Bucheon FC 1995 Prediction— South Korea - K League 1

Matchday 25 ·Tuesday, August 25, 2026, 10:30

FC Seoul

PPG 1.82 · HOME

LAST 5

DWWWW

1 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Bucheon FC 1995

PPG 1.45 · AWAY

LAST 5

DWWLD

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 52.7% vs bookmaker-implied 52.6% — a real, if thin, edge.

+0.1% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.8%0-17.8%0-23.5%0-31.0%0-4+0.3%1 1-013.5%1-112.1%1-25.4%1-31.6%1-4+0.4%2 2-010.4%2-19.3%2-24.1%2-31.2%2-4+0.3%3 3-05.4%3-14.8%3-22.1%3-30.6%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-02.9%4+-12.6%4+-21.2%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 52.4% 66.7% 1.50 -21.4%

Draw 24.1% 25.0% 4.00 -2.2%

Away win 23.4% 15.2% 6.60 +32.7%

Over 2.5 51.6% 54.1% 1.85 -4.5%

Over 3.5 31.1% 32.3% 3.10 -3.6%

BTTS 52.7% 52.6% 1.90 +0.1%

Home O1.5 43.5% 61.7% 1.62 -29.5%

Away O1.5 25.7% 22.2% 4.50 +9.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 62 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 34%

O2.5 48%

BTTS 45%

Score Hit 53%

ROI -23.8%

Bet Hit 41%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 28%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob52.7%

H 52% / xG 1.5-0.9 / O2.5 52% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0✓ 13.5%

#2 1–1 12.1%

#3 2–0 10.4%

#4 2–1 9.3%

#5 0–0 8.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

FC Seoul1.5

Bucheon FC 19950.9

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 51.6% · O3.5 PROB 31.1%

Form & verdict PPG

FC SEOUL · PPG 1.82

BUCHEON FC 1995 · PPG 1.45

✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.65 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

FC Seoul (H) 52.4%

ODDS 1.50 · IMPLIED 66.7% EV -21.4%

Draw 24.1%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV -2.2%

Bucheon FC 1995 (A) 23.4%

ODDS 6.60 · IMPLIED 15.2% EV +32.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

FC Seoul face Bucheon FC 1995 in South Korea - K League 1 on Tuesday, August 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives FC Seoul a 52% chance, the draw 24% and Bucheon FC 1995 23%, so FC Seoul are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for FC Seoul and 0.9 for Bucheon FC 1995 (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 52% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, FC Seoul are averaging 1.82 points per game versus 1.45 for Bucheon FC 1995. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +25.8%. This match finished 1-0.

FC Seoul vs Bucheon FC 1995 Prediction— South Korea - K League 1

Match Preview & Prediction

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