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Gangwon FC vs Gwangju FC Prediction— South Korea - K League 1

Matchday 25 ·Wednesday, August 26, 2026, 10:30

Gangwon FC

PPG 1.60 · HOME

LAST 5

LWLDD

2 – 2

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME

Gwangju FC

PPG 0.36 · AWAY

LAST 5

DLLDL

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 56.5% vs bookmaker-implied 66.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.3%0-14.8%0-21.2%0-30.2%0-4+0.0%1 1-017.4%1-18.9%1-22.3%1-30.4%1-4+0.1%2 2-016.1%2-18.3%2-22.1%2-30.4%2-4+0.1%3 3-010.0%3-15.1%3-21.3%3-30.2%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-07.1%4+-13.6%4+-20.9%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 56.5% 66.7% 1.50 -15.3%

Draw 22.1% 26.0% 3.85 -8.9%

Away win 21.4% 14.7% 6.80 +27.3%

Over 2.5 50.5% 50.0% 2.00 +1.0%

Over 3.5 28.7% 27.8% 3.60 +2.0%

BTTS 47.2% 48.8% 2.05 -3.2%

Home O1.5 56.3% 57.8% 1.73 -2.6%

Away O1.5 15.1% 20.0% 5.00 -14.7%

League track record ↗

Based on 62 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 34%

O2.5 48%

BTTS 45%

Score Hit 53%

ROI -23.8%

Bet Hit 41%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 32%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-2

xG (home)1.9 xG (away)0.5 BTTS prob47.2%

H 56% / xG 1.9-0.5 / U2.5 50% / NoBTTS 47%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 16.1%

#2 1–0 17.4%

#3 0–0 9.3%

#4 1–1 8.9%

#5 0–1 4.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Gangwon FC1.9

Gwangju FC0.5

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.5% · O3.5 PROB 28.7%

Form & verdict PPG

GANGWON FC · PPG 1.60

GWANGJU FC · PPG 0.36

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.35 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Gangwon FC (H) 56.5%

ODDS 1.50 · IMPLIED 66.7% EV -15.3%

Draw 22.1%

ODDS 3.85 · IMPLIED 26.0% EV -8.9%

Gwangju FC (A) 21.4%

ODDS 6.80 · IMPLIED 14.7% EV +27.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Gangwon FC face Gwangju FC in South Korea - K League 1 on Wednesday, August 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Gangwon FC a 56% chance, the draw 22% and Gwangju FC 21%, so Gangwon FC are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for Gangwon FC and 0.5 for Gwangju FC (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 47% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Gangwon FC are averaging 1.60 points per game versus 0.36 for Gwangju FC. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +2.0%. This match finished 2-2.

Gangwon FC vs Gwangju FC Prediction— South Korea - K League 1

Match Preview & Prediction

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