Today / Ilicitano vs R. Majadahonda

Ilicitano vs R. Majadahonda Prediction

Sunday, April 19, 2026

Ilicitano

PPG 1.20 · HOME

0 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

R. Majadahonda

PPG 2.20 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Away momentum: EXCELLENT form (2.20) vs Home AVERAGE (1.20)

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.4%0-19.5%0-28.3%0-34.8%0-4+3.1%1 1-06.3%1-111.1%1-29.7%1-35.6%1-4+3.6%2 2-03.7%2-16.5%2-25.6%2-33.3%2-4+2.1%3 3-01.4%3-12.5%3-22.2%3-31.3%3-4+0.8%4+ 4+-00.5%4+-10.9%4+-20.8%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 25.5% — — —

Draw 23.6% — — —

Away win 50.9% — — —

Over 2.5 55.7% — — —

Over 3.5 33.3% — — —

BTTS 56.8% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 44%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-1

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)1.7 BTTS prob56.8%

A 51% / xG 1.2-1.7 / O2.5 56% / BTTS 57%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.1%

#2 1–2 9.7%

#3 0–1✓ 9.5%

#4 0–2 8.3%

#5 2–1 6.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Ilicitano1.2

R. Majadahonda1.7

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 55.7% · O3.5 PROB 33.3%

Form & verdict PPG

ILICITANO · PPG 1.20

R. MAJADAHONDA · PPG 2.20

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum | No clear value

63%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: EXCELLENT form (2.20) vs Home AVERAGE (1.20)

Win probability 1X2

Ilicitano (H) 25.5%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 23.6%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

R. Majadahonda (A) 50.9%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Ilicitano face R. Majadahonda on Sunday, April 19, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Ilicitano a 26% chance, the draw 24% and R. Majadahonda 51%, so R. Majadahonda are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Ilicitano and 1.7 for R. Majadahonda (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 56% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 57% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Ilicitano are averaging 1.20 points per game versus 2.20 for R. Majadahonda. This match finished 0-1.

Ilicitano vs R. Majadahonda Prediction

Match Preview & Prediction

More Football Predictions