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Playford City Patriots vs FK Beograd Prediction— Australia - NPL South Australia

Quarter-finals ·Saturday, August 22, 2026, 05:30

Playford City Patriots

PPG 1.82 · HOME

LAST 5

LLWWL

3 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

FK Beograd

PPG 1.27 · AWAY

LAST 5

LWLLL

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 54.7% vs bookmaker-implied 66.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.1%0-16.7%0-23.7%0-31.3%0-4+0.5%1 1-010.4%1-111.4%1-26.2%1-32.3%1-4+0.8%2 2-08.8%2-19.7%2-25.3%2-31.9%2-4+0.7%3 3-05.0%3-15.5%3-23.0%3-31.1%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-03.1%4+-13.4%4+-21.9%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 50.6% 47.6% 2.10 +6.3%

Draw 24.5% 30.8% 3.25 -12.2%

Away win 24.8% 33.3% 3.00 -15.4%

Over 2.5 53.9% 63.7% 1.57 -15.4%

Over 3.5 31.6% 42.0% 2.38 -24.8%

BTTS 54.7% 66.7% 1.50 -17.9%

Home O1.5 48.8% 54.6% 1.83 -10.7%

Away O1.5 35.6% 44.4% 2.25 -19.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 33 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 55%

O2.5 52%

BTTS 52%

Score Hit 36%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 38%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-0

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob54.7%

H 51% / xG 1.7-1.1 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.4%

#2 2–1 9.7%

#3 2–0 8.8%

#4 1–0 10.4%

#5 0–0 6.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Playford City Patriots1.7

FK Beograd1.1

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.9% · O3.5 PROB 31.6%

Form & verdict PPG

PLAYFORD CITY PATRIOTS · PPG 1.82

FK BEOGRAD · PPG 1.27

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.60 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Playford City Patriots (H) 50.6%

ODDS 2.10 · IMPLIED 47.6% EV +6.3%

Draw 24.5%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV -12.2%

FK Beograd (A) 24.8%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV -15.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Playford City Patriots face FK Beograd in Australia - NPL South Australia on Saturday, August 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Playford City Patriots a 51% chance, the draw 25% and FK Beograd 25%, so Playford City Patriots are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Playford City Patriots and 1.1 for FK Beograd (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Playford City Patriots are averaging 1.82 points per game versus 1.27 for FK Beograd. This match finished 3-0.

Playford City Patriots vs FK Beograd Prediction— Australia - NPL South Australia

Match Preview & Prediction

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