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Playford City Patriots vs Adelaide City Prediction— Australia - NPL South Australia

Semi-finals ·Saturday, August 29, 2026, 05:30

Playford City Patriots

PPG 1.92 · HOME

LAST 5

LLWWL

1 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Adelaide City

PPG 1.91 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWWWW

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 52.7% vs bookmaker-implied 63.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.2%0-110.9%0-27.2%0-33.2%0-4+1.4%1 1-09.7%1-112.8%1-28.5%1-33.7%1-4+1.6%2 2-05.7%2-17.5%2-25.0%2-32.2%2-4+1.0%3 3-02.2%3-12.9%3-21.9%3-30.9%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-00.8%4+-11.1%4+-20.7%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 31.1% 25.6% 3.90 +21.3%

Draw 26.7% 29.4% 3.40 -5.5%

Away win 42.2% 57.1% 1.75 -26.2%

Over 2.5 50.5% 61.7% 1.62 -18.2%

Over 3.5 28.9% 40.0% 2.50 -16.7%

BTTS 52.7% 63.7% 1.57 -17.3%

Home O1.5 31.8% 33.3% 3.00 -4.6%

Away O1.5 40.9% 57.8% 1.73 -29.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 33 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 55%

O2.5 52%

BTTS 52%

Score Hit 36%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 21%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob52.7%

A 42% / xG 1.2-1.3 / O2.5 50% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.8%

#2 0–1 10.9%

#3 1–2✓ 8.5%

#4 0–0 8.2%

#5 0–2 7.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Playford City Patriots1.2

Adelaide City1.3

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.5% · O3.5 PROB 28.9%

Form & verdict PPG

PLAYFORD CITY PATRIOTS · PPG 1.92

ADELAIDE CITY · PPG 1.91

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap -0.15, combined xG 2.50 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Playford City Patriots (H) 31.1%

ODDS 3.90 · IMPLIED 25.6% EV +21.3%

Draw 26.7%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -5.5%

Adelaide City (A) 42.2%

ODDS 1.75 · IMPLIED 57.1% EV -26.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Playford City Patriots face Adelaide City in Australia - NPL South Australia on Saturday, August 29, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Playford City Patriots a 31% chance, the draw 27% and Adelaide City 42%, so Adelaide City are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Playford City Patriots and 1.3 for Adelaide City (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Playford City Patriots are averaging 1.92 points per game versus 1.91 for Adelaide City. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +22.8%. This match finished 1-2.

Playford City Patriots vs Adelaide City Prediction— Australia - NPL South Australia

Match Preview & Prediction

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