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LA Galaxy vs Los Angeles FC Prediction— USA - MLS

Matchday 16 ·Saturday, July 18, 2026, 02:25

LA Galaxy

PPG 1.29 · HOME

LAST 5

DLWDL

0 – 3

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Los Angeles FC

PPG 1.14 · AWAY

LAST 5

DLLDD

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 55.5% vs bookmaker-implied 67.6%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.5%0-19.1%0-25.5%0-32.2%0-4+0.9%1 1-010.3%1-112.5%1-27.6%1-33.1%1-4+1.2%2 2-07.1%2-18.6%2-25.2%2-32.1%2-4+0.8%3 3-03.2%3-13.9%3-22.4%3-31.0%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-01.5%4+-11.8%4+-21.1%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 44.5% 35.5% 2.82 +25.5%

Draw 26.3% 27.0% 3.70 -1.6%

Away win 29.3% 44.4% 2.25 -20.4%

Over 2.5 53.7% 64.5% 1.55 -16.8%

Over 3.5 33.0% 42.6% 2.35 -22.4%

BTTS 55.5% 67.6% 1.48 -17.9%

Home O1.5 41.1% 47.6% 2.10 -13.7%

Away O1.5 37.7% 54.6% 1.83 -31.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 109 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 61%

BTTS 64%

Score Hit 48%

ROI -18.9%

Bet Hit 52%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 30%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-3

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob55.5%

H 44% / xG 1.4-1.2 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 56%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.5%

#2 0–0 7.5%

#3 2–1 8.6%

#4 1–0 10.3%

#5 1–2 7.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

LA Galaxy1.4

Los Angeles FC1.2

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.7% · O3.5 PROB 33.0%

Form & verdict PPG

LA GALAXY · PPG 1.29

LOS ANGELES FC · PPG 1.14

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

70%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.29), Away AVERAGE (1.14)

Win probability 1X2

LA Galaxy (H) 44.5%

ODDS 2.82 · IMPLIED 35.5% EV +25.5%

Draw 26.3%

ODDS 3.70 · IMPLIED 27.0% EV -1.6%

Los Angeles FC (A) 29.3%

ODDS 2.25 · IMPLIED 44.4% EV -20.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

LA Galaxy face Los Angeles FC in USA - MLS on Saturday, July 18, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives LA Galaxy a 45% chance, the draw 26% and Los Angeles FC 29%, so LA Galaxy are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for LA Galaxy and 1.2 for Los Angeles FC (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 56% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, LA Galaxy are averaging 1.29 points per game versus 1.14 for Los Angeles FC. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +25.5%. This match finished 0-3.

LA Galaxy vs Los Angeles FC Prediction— USA - MLS

Match Preview & Prediction

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