Today / USA - MLS Next Pro / FC Cincinnati II vs Philadelphia Union II

FC Cincinnati II vs Philadelphia Union II Prediction— USA - MLS Next Pro

Group Stage ·Sunday, August 30, 2026, 16:00

FC Cincinnati II

PPG 1.17 · HOME

LAST 5

LLLWL

2 – 3

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Philadelphia Union II

PPG 1.17 · AWAY

LAST 5

DWWLW

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 60.8% vs bookmaker-implied 71.4%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.9%0-17.9%0-25.3%0-32.4%0-4+1.1%1 1-08.8%1-111.8%1-27.9%1-33.5%1-4+1.6%2 2-06.6%2-18.8%2-25.9%2-32.6%2-4+1.2%3 3-03.3%3-14.4%3-22.9%3-31.3%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-01.7%4+-12.3%4+-21.5%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 40.2% 37.0% 2.70 +8.5%

Draw 24.3% 27.8% 3.60 -7.5%

Away win 35.4% 47.6% 2.10 -25.7%

Over 2.5 59.7% 66.7% 1.50 -10.4%

Over 3.5 37.4% 48.8% 2.05 -23.3%

BTTS 60.8% 71.4% 1.40 -14.9%

Home O1.5 40.1% 51.5% 1.94 -22.2%

Away O1.5 40.9% 59.5% 1.68 -31.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 79 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 66%

O2.5 77%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 24%

ROI 9.8%

Bet Hit 67%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 43%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-3

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob60.8%

H 40% / xG 1.5-1.3 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 61%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.8%

#2 2–1 8.8%

#3 1–2 7.9%

#4 1–0 8.8%

#5 0–1 7.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

FC Cincinnati II1.5

Philadelphia Union II1.3

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.7% · O3.5 PROB 37.4%

Form & verdict PPG

FC CINCINNATI II · PPG 1.17

PHILADELPHIA UNION II · PPG 1.17

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.16 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

FC Cincinnati II (H) 40.2%

ODDS 2.70 · IMPLIED 37.0% EV +8.5%

Draw 24.3%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV -7.5%

Philadelphia Union II (A) 35.4%

ODDS 2.10 · IMPLIED 47.6% EV -25.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

FC Cincinnati II face Philadelphia Union II in USA - MLS Next Pro on Sunday, August 30, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives FC Cincinnati II a 40% chance, the draw 24% and Philadelphia Union II 35%, so FC Cincinnati II are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for FC Cincinnati II and 1.3 for Philadelphia Union II (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 61% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, FC Cincinnati II are averaging 1.17 points per game versus 1.17 for Philadelphia Union II. This match finished 2-3.

FC Cincinnati II vs Philadelphia Union II Prediction— USA - MLS Next Pro

Match Preview & Prediction

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