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Seattle vs Portland Prediction— USA - MLS

Regular Season - 17 ·Friday, July 17, 2026, 02:30

Seattle

PPG 2.17 · HOME

1 – 5

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Portland

PPG 0.50 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.2 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 63.4% vs bookmaker-implied 70.4%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.2%0-13.7%0-21.6%0-30.5%0-4+0.1%1 1-09.7%1-18.5%1-23.7%1-31.1%1-4+0.3%2 2-011.1%2-19.7%2-24.2%2-31.2%2-4+0.3%3 3-08.5%3-17.4%3-23.2%3-30.9%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-08.3%4+-17.2%4+-23.2%4+-30.9%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 59.0% 64.5% 1.55 -8.6%

Draw 21.5% 21.5% 4.65 -0.0%

Away win 19.5% 20.8% 4.80 -3.8%

Over 2.5 63.4% 70.4% 1.42 -10.0%

Over 3.5 40.1% 47.6% 2.10 -15.8%

BTTS 55.5% 66.7% 1.50 -16.8%

Home O1.5 62.9% 70.4% 1.42 -10.7%

Away O1.5 24.1% 37.0% 2.70 -21.0%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 48%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-5

xG (home)2.3 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob55.5%

H 59% / xG 2.3-0.9 / O2.5 63% / BTTS 56%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 11.1%

#2 1–1 8.5%

#3 2–1 9.7%

#4 3–0 8.5%

#5 1–0 9.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Seattle2.3

Portland0.9

COMBINED 3.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.4% · O3.5 PROB 40.1%

Form & verdict PPG

SEATTLE · PPG 2.17

PORTLAND · PPG 0.50

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.17) vs P(Home)=59.0%

Win probability 1X2

Seattle (H) 59.0%

ODDS 1.55 · IMPLIED 64.5% EV -8.6%

Draw 21.5%

ODDS 4.65 · IMPLIED 21.5% EV -0.0%

Portland (A) 19.5%

ODDS 4.80 · IMPLIED 20.8% EV -3.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Seattle face Portland in USA - MLS on Friday, July 17, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Seattle a 59% chance, the draw 22% and Portland 20%, so Seattle are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.3 for Seattle and 0.9 for Portland (3.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 63% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 56% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Seattle are averaging 2.17 points per game versus 0.50 for Portland. This match finished 1-5.

Seattle vs Portland Prediction— USA - MLS

Match Preview & Prediction

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