Today / USA - MLS / CF Montreal vs Toronto

CF Montreal vs Toronto Prediction— USA - MLS

Regular Season - 17 ·Thursday, July 16, 2026, 23:30

CF Montreal

PPG 1.67 · HOME

UPCOMING

Toronto

PPG 0.60 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.8 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 67.1% vs bookmaker-implied 61.7% — a real, if thin, edge.

+8.7% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.3%0-13.4%0-22.4%0-31.2%0-4+0.6%1 1-05.4%1-17.8%1-25.6%1-32.7%1-4+1.4%2 2-06.2%2-19.0%2-26.5%2-33.1%2-4+1.6%3 3-04.8%3-17.0%3-25.0%3-32.4%3-4+1.2%4+ 4+-04.8%4+-16.9%4+-25.0%4+-32.4%4+-4+1.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 53.9% 50.8% 1.97 +6.2%

Draw 21.9% 27.0% 3.70 -11.4%

Away win 24.2% 29.0% 3.45 -9.9%

Over 2.5 67.1% 61.7% 1.62 +8.7%

Over 3.5 46.6% 39.2% 2.55 +18.8%

BTTS 63.8% 65.4% 1.53 -2.4%

Home O1.5 62.9% 56.5% 1.77 +11.3%

Away O1.5 43.7% 40.8% 2.45 +7.1%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 65%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.3 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob63.8%

H 54% / xG 2.3-1.4 / O2.5 67% / BTTS 64%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 9.0%

#2 1–1 7.8%

#3 3–1 7.0%

#4 2–2 6.5%

#5 2–0 6.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

CF Montreal2.3

Toronto1.4

COMBINED 3.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 67.1% · O3.5 PROB 46.6%

Form & verdict PPG

CF MONTREAL · PPG 1.67

TORONTO · PPG 0.60

✓ SOLID - Strong home form

80%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: GOOD form (1.67) vs P(Home)=53.9%

Win probability 1X2

CF Montreal (H) 53.9%

ODDS 1.97 · IMPLIED 50.8% EV +6.2%

Draw 21.9%

ODDS 3.70 · IMPLIED 27.0% EV -11.4%

Toronto (A) 24.2%

ODDS 3.45 · IMPLIED 29.0% EV -9.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

CF Montreal face Toronto in USA - MLS on Thursday, July 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives CF Montreal a 54% chance, the draw 22% and Toronto 24%, so CF Montreal are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.3 for CF Montreal and 1.4 for Toronto (3.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 67% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 64% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, CF Montreal are averaging 1.67 points per game versus 0.60 for Toronto. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +27.1%.

CF Montreal vs Toronto Prediction— USA - MLS

Match Preview & Prediction

More USA - MLS Predictions