Today / Finland / HIFK vs PPJ

HIFK vs PPJ Prediction— Finland

Group A ·Thursday, July 16, 2026, 16:00

HIFK

PPG 2.17 · HOME

UPCOMING

PPJ

PPG 1.50 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.7 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 67.1% vs bookmaker-implied 75.2%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.4%0-13.2%0-22.2%0-31.0%0-4+0.4%1 1-05.7%1-17.7%1-25.2%1-32.3%1-4+1.1%2 2-06.8%2-19.2%2-26.2%2-32.8%2-4+1.3%3 3-05.4%3-17.3%3-24.9%3-32.2%3-4+1.0%4+ 4+-05.6%4+-17.6%4+-25.2%4+-32.3%4+-4+1.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 57.7% 66.7% 1.50 -13.5%

Draw 22.1% 25.6% 3.90 -8.3%

Away win 20.2% 20.8% 4.80 -1.8%

Over 2.5 67.1% 75.2% 1.33 -10.8%

Over 3.5 44.5% 54.6% 1.83 -18.6%

BTTS 62.7% 69.4% 1.44 -9.7%

Home O1.5 62.9% 73.5% 1.36 -14.5%

Away O1.5 39.0% 40.0% 2.50 -2.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 5 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 20%

O2.5 40%

BTTS 60%

Score Hit 40%

ROI -44.0%

Bet Hit 40%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 66%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.4 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob62.7%

H 58% / xG 2.4-1.4 / O2.5 67% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 9.2%

#2 1–1 7.7%

#3 3–1 7.3%

#4 2–0 6.8%

#5 2–2 6.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

HIFK2.4

PPJ1.4

COMBINED 3.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 67.1% · O3.5 PROB 44.5%

Form & verdict PPG

HIFK · PPG 2.17

PPJ · PPG 1.50

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: EXCELLENT (2.17) > Away GOOD (1.50)

Win probability 1X2

HIFK (H) 57.7%

ODDS 1.50 · IMPLIED 66.7% EV -13.5%

Draw 22.1%

ODDS 3.90 · IMPLIED 25.6% EV -8.3%

PPJ (A) 20.2%

ODDS 4.80 · IMPLIED 20.8% EV -1.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

HIFK face PPJ in Finland on Thursday, July 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives HIFK a 58% chance, the draw 22% and PPJ 20%, so HIFK are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.4 for HIFK and 1.4 for PPJ (3.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 67% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, HIFK are averaging 2.17 points per game versus 1.50 for PPJ. The best value bet our model finds is A/BTTS, with an expected value of +6.7%.

HIFK vs PPJ Prediction— Finland

Match Preview & Prediction

More Finland Predictions