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NJS vs EBK Prediction— Finland - Kakkonen Group B

Group B ·Saturday, July 11, 2026, 14:00

NJS

PPG 0.00 · HOME

UPCOMING

EBK

PPG 0.20 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.2 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 64.0% vs bookmaker-implied 76.9%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.2%0-18.0%0-27.7%0-34.9%0-4+3.7%1 1-05.2%1-110.1%1-29.7%1-36.2%1-4+4.6%2 2-03.3%2-16.3%2-26.1%2-33.9%2-4+2.9%3 3-01.4%3-12.6%3-22.5%3-31.6%3-4+1.2%4+ 4+-00.6%4+-11.1%4+-21.0%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 28.5% 23.8% 4.20 +11.8%

Draw 21.7% 26.3% 3.80 -10.5%

Away win 49.8% 62.5% 1.60 -20.3%

Over 2.5 64.0% 76.9% 1.30 -16.8%

Over 3.5 41.4% 57.8% 1.73 -28.4%

BTTS 62.4% 73.5% 1.36 -15.1%

Home O1.5 40.3% 44.4% 2.25 -9.3%

Away O1.5 50.2% 73.5% 1.36 -31.7%

League track record ↗

Based on 17 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 65%

O2.5 65%

BTTS 71%

Score Hit 24%

ROI -19.2%

Bet Hit 63%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 49%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)1.9 BTTS prob62.4%

A 50% / xG 1.3-1.9 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.1%

#2 1–2 9.7%

#3 0–2 7.7%

#4 0–1 8.0%

#5 2–1 6.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

NJS1.3

EBK1.9

COMBINED 3.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 64.0% · O3.5 PROB 41.4%

Form & verdict PPG

NJS · PPG 0.00

EBK · PPG 0.20

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

40%

NEUTRAL

No PPG data

Win probability 1X2

NJS (H) 28.5%

ODDS 4.20 · IMPLIED 23.8% EV +11.8%

Draw 21.7%

ODDS 3.80 · IMPLIED 26.3% EV -10.5%

EBK (A) 49.8%

ODDS 1.60 · IMPLIED 62.5% EV -20.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

NJS face EBK in Finland - Kakkonen Group B on Saturday, July 11, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives NJS a 28% chance, the draw 22% and EBK 50%, so EBK are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for NJS and 1.9 for EBK (3.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, NJS are averaging 0.00 points per game versus 0.20 for EBK. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +11.8%.

NJS vs EBK Prediction— Finland - Kakkonen Group B

Match Preview & Prediction

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