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EPS vs P-Iirot Prediction— Finland - Kakkonen Group B

Group B ·Saturday, July 11, 2026, 14:00

EPS

PPG 1.00 · HOME

UPCOMING

P-Iirot

PPG 0.40 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.4 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 66.4% vs bookmaker-implied 73.5%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.3%0-15.1%0-23.9%0-32.0%0-4+1.1%1 1-06.2%1-19.5%1-27.4%1-33.8%1-4+2.0%2 2-05.8%2-18.9%2-26.8%2-33.5%2-4+1.9%3 3-03.6%3-15.5%3-24.3%3-32.2%3-4+1.2%4+ 4+-02.6%4+-13.9%4+-23.0%4+-31.6%4+-4+0.8%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 44.7% 40.8% 2.45 +9.5%

Draw 21.7% 29.4% 3.40 -15.7%

Away win 33.6% 43.5% 2.30 -22.7%

Over 2.5 66.4% 73.5% 1.36 -9.7%

Over 3.5 42.5% 54.6% 1.83 -22.2%

BTTS 63.2% 74.1% 1.35 -14.7%

Home O1.5 55.1% 57.8% 1.73 -4.7%

Away O1.5 50.2% 57.8% 1.73 -13.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 17 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 65%

O2.5 65%

BTTS 71%

Score Hit 24%

ROI -19.2%

Bet Hit 63%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 51%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.9 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob63.2%

H 45% / xG 1.9-1.5 / O2.5 66% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.5%

#2 2–1 8.9%

#3 1–2 7.4%

#4 2–2 6.8%

#5 2–0 5.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

EPS1.9

P-Iirot1.5

COMBINED 3.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 66.4% · O3.5 PROB 42.5%

Form & verdict PPG

EPS · PPG 1.00

P-IIROT · PPG 0.40

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.00) > Away POOR (0.40)

Win probability 1X2

EPS (H) 44.7%

ODDS 2.45 · IMPLIED 40.8% EV +9.5%

Draw 21.7%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -15.7%

P-Iirot (A) 33.6%

ODDS 2.30 · IMPLIED 43.5% EV -22.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

EPS face P-Iirot in Finland - Kakkonen Group B on Saturday, July 11, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives EPS a 45% chance, the draw 22% and P-Iirot 34%, so EPS are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for EPS and 1.5 for P-Iirot (3.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 66% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, EPS are averaging 1.00 points per game versus 0.40 for P-Iirot. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +9.5%.

EPS vs P-Iirot Prediction— Finland - Kakkonen Group B

Match Preview & Prediction

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