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PEPO vs HPS Prediction— Finland

Group A · Matchday 12 ·Saturday, July 11, 2026, 14:00

PEPO

PPG 2.20 · HOME

LAST 5

WWWWD

2 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

HPS

PPG 2.60 · AWAY

LAST 5

DDLLL

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.2 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 64.0% vs bookmaker-implied 69.4%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.2%0-16.7%0-25.4%0-32.9%0-4+1.7%1 1-06.6%1-110.5%1-28.5%1-34.5%1-4+2.6%2 2-05.1%2-18.2%2-26.6%2-33.6%2-4+2.0%3 3-02.7%3-14.3%3-23.5%3-31.9%3-4+1.1%4+ 4+-01.5%4+-12.4%4+-21.9%4+-31.0%4+-4+0.6%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 35.9% 58.8% 1.70 -39.0%

Draw 23.0% 28.6% 3.50 -11.7%

Away win 41.1% 25.6% 3.90 +60.3%

Over 2.5 64.0% 69.4% 1.44 -7.8%

Over 3.5 40.3% 47.6% 2.10 -15.4%

BTTS 62.4% 69.4% 1.44 -10.1%

Home O1.5 46.2% 65.4% 1.53 -29.3%

Away O1.5 50.2% 40.0% 2.50 +25.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 10 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 40%

O2.5 60%

BTTS 70%

Score Hit 30%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 42%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-0

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)1.6 BTTS prob62.4%

A 41% / xG 1.6-1.6 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.5%

#2 1–2 8.5%

#3 2–1 8.2%

#4 2–2 6.6%

#5 0–0 4.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

PEPO1.6

HPS1.6

COMBINED 3.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 64.0% · O3.5 PROB 40.3%

Form & verdict PPG

PEPO · PPG 2.20

HPS · PPG 2.60

⚠ CAUTION - Home form weak, consider away

65%

DANGER

Home weakness: EXCELLENT (2.20) vs Away EXCELLENT (2.60)

Win probability 1X2

PEPO (H) 35.9%

ODDS 1.70 · IMPLIED 58.8% EV -39.0%

Draw 23.0%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -11.7%

HPS (A) 41.1%

ODDS 3.90 · IMPLIED 25.6% EV +60.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

PEPO face HPS in Finland on Saturday, July 11, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives PEPO a 36% chance, the draw 23% and HPS 41%, so HPS are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for PEPO and 1.6 for HPS (3.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, PEPO are averaging 2.20 points per game versus 2.60 for HPS. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +60.3%. This match finished 2-0.

PEPO vs HPS Prediction— Finland

Match Preview & Prediction

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