PEPO vs HPS Prediction— Finland
Group A ·Saturday, July 11, 2026, 14:00
// Model verdict
Over 2.5
Combined xG of 3.2 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 64.0% vs bookmaker-implied 69.4%.
Poisson scoreline matrix
Markets vs the line
Correct score prediction
A 41% / xG 1.6-1.6 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 62%
Top 5 Poisson scorelines
Expected goals
COMBINED 3.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 64.0% · O3.5 PROB 40.3%
Form & verdict
PEPO · PPG 2.20
HPS · PPG 2.60
Home weakness: EXCELLENT (2.20) vs Away EXCELLENT (2.60)
Win probability
Match Preview & Prediction
PEPO face HPS in Finland on Saturday, July 11, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives PEPO a 36% chance, the draw 23% and HPS 41%, so HPS are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for PEPO and 1.6 for HPS (3.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, PEPO are averaging 2.20 points per game versus 2.60 for HPS. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +60.3%.