Today / Finland / MYPA vs Union Plaani

MYPA vs Union Plaani Prediction— Finland

Group A ·Saturday, July 11, 2026, 14:00

MYPA

PPG 0.17 · HOME

UPCOMING

Union Plaani

PPG 0.20 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.1 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 64.0% vs bookmaker-implied 76.9%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.3%0-15.9%0-24.0%0-31.8%0-4+0.8%1 1-07.7%1-110.5%1-27.1%1-33.2%1-4+1.5%2 2-06.9%2-19.3%2-26.3%2-32.9%2-4+1.3%3 3-04.1%3-15.6%3-23.8%3-31.7%3-4+0.8%4+ 4+-02.7%4+-13.7%4+-22.5%4+-31.1%4+-4+0.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 47.3% 54.1% 1.85 -12.5%

Draw 24.0% 26.3% 3.80 -5.3%

Away win 28.7% 33.3% 3.00 -8.3%

Over 2.5 64.0% 76.9% 1.30 -16.8%

Over 3.5 39.9% 57.8% 1.73 -31.0%

BTTS 62.4% 77.5% 1.29 -19.5%

Home O1.5 52.5% 69.4% 1.44 -24.4%

Away O1.5 38.4% 54.6% 1.83 -29.7%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 46%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob62.4%

H 47% / xG 1.8-1.4 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.5%

#2 2–1 9.3%

#3 1–2 7.1%

#4 2–0 6.9%

#5 2–2 6.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

MYPA1.8

Union Plaani1.4

COMBINED 3.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 64.0% · O3.5 PROB 39.9%

Form & verdict PPG

MYPA · PPG 0.17

UNION PLAANI · PPG 0.20

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home POOR (0.17), Away POOR (0.20)

Win probability 1X2

MYPA (H) 47.3%

ODDS 1.85 · IMPLIED 54.1% EV -12.5%

Draw 24.0%

ODDS 3.80 · IMPLIED 26.3% EV -5.3%

Union Plaani (A) 28.7%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV -8.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

MYPA face Union Plaani in Finland on Saturday, July 11, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives MYPA a 47% chance, the draw 24% and Union Plaani 29%, so MYPA are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for MYPA and 1.4 for Union Plaani (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, MYPA are averaging 0.17 points per game versus 0.20 for Union Plaani.

MYPA vs Union Plaani Prediction— Finland

Match Preview & Prediction

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