Today / Finland - Ykkosliga / Haka vs Ekenas IF

Haka vs Ekenas IF Prediction— Finland - Ykkosliga

Group Stage ·Saturday, July 11, 2026, 13:00

Haka

PPG 1.57 · HOME

UPCOMING

Ekenas IF

PPG 0.17 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 5.0 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 72.5% vs bookmaker-implied 64.5% — a clear edge.

+12.4% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-00.7%0-10.9%0-20.6%0-30.3%0-4+0.1%1 1-02.4%1-13.4%1-22.3%1-31.1%1-4+0.5%2 2-04.4%2-16.1%2-24.2%2-32.0%2-4+0.9%3 3-05.3%3-17.3%3-25.1%3-32.4%3-4+1.1%4+ 4+-012.2%4+-116.9%4+-211.7%4+-35.4%4+-4+2.6%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 65.0% 66.7% 1.50 -2.5%

Draw 16.9% 24.4% 4.10 -18.4%

Away win 18.1% 19.0% 5.25 -3.0%

Over 2.5 72.5% 64.5% 1.55 +12.4%

Over 3.5 52.9% 42.0% 2.38 +25.9%

BTTS 63.2% 61.7% 1.62 +2.4%

Home O1.5 75.9% 69.0% 1.45 +10.1%

Away O1.5 38.4% 31.3% 3.20 +22.9%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

4 – 1 77%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)3.6 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob63.2%

H 65% / xG 3.6-1.4 / O2.5 72% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 3–1 7.3%

#2 4–1 6.6%

#3 2–1 6.1%

#4 3–0 5.3%

#5 3–2 5.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Haka3.6

Ekenas IF1.4

COMBINED 5.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 72.5% · O3.5 PROB 52.9%

Form & verdict PPG

HAKA · PPG 1.57

EKENAS IF · PPG 0.17

✓ SOLID - Strong home form

95%

STRONG_HOME

Home team in GOOD form (1.57), Away POOR (0.17) - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Haka (H) 65.0%

ODDS 1.50 · IMPLIED 66.7% EV -2.5%

Draw 16.9%

ODDS 4.10 · IMPLIED 24.4% EV -18.4%

Ekenas IF (A) 18.1%

ODDS 5.25 · IMPLIED 19.0% EV -3.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Haka face Ekenas IF in Finland - Ykkosliga on Saturday, July 11, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Haka a 65% chance, the draw 17% and Ekenas IF 18%, so Haka are favoured to win. Expected goals are 3.6 for Haka and 1.4 for Ekenas IF (5.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 3-1. There is a 73% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Haka are averaging 1.57 points per game versus 0.17 for Ekenas IF. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +57.1%.

Haka vs Ekenas IF Prediction— Finland - Ykkosliga

Match Preview & Prediction

More Finland - Ykkosliga Predictions