Today / South Korea - K League 1 / Ulsan vs Jeonbuk

Ulsan vs Jeonbuk Prediction— South Korea - K League 1

Matchday 17 ·Saturday, July 11, 2026, 10:30

Ulsan

PPG 1.63 · HOME

LAST 5

WLLLW

1 – 3

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Jeonbuk

PPG 1.38 · AWAY

LAST 5

LLWDD

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 52.6% vs bookmaker-implied 58.8%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.8%0-111.7%0-27.8%0-33.5%0-4+1.6%1 1-09.6%1-112.9%1-28.6%1-33.8%1-4+1.7%2 2-05.3%2-17.1%2-24.7%2-32.1%2-4+0.9%3 3-01.9%3-12.6%3-21.7%3-30.8%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-00.7%4+-10.9%4+-20.6%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 33.7% 40.0% 2.50 -15.8%

Draw 28.1% 29.9% 3.35 -3.5%

Away win 38.2% 37.0% 2.70 +3.1%

Over 2.5 49.9% 51.3% 1.95 -2.7%

Over 3.5 28.8% 29.4% 3.40 -1.3%

BTTS 52.6% 58.8% 1.70 -10.6%

Home O1.5 35.9% 42.0% 2.38 -14.6%

Away O1.5 38.4% 40.8% 2.45 -5.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 62 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 34%

O2.5 48%

BTTS 45%

Score Hit 53%

ROI -23.8%

Bet Hit 41%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 2 23%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-3

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob52.6%

D 28% / xG 1.1-1.3 / O2.5 50% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.9%

#2 0–0 8.8%

#3 0–1 11.7%

#4 1–2 8.6%

#5 0–2 7.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Ulsan1.1

Jeonbuk1.3

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 49.9% · O3.5 PROB 28.8%

Form & verdict PPG

ULSAN · PPG 1.63

JEONBUK · PPG 1.38

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

60%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home GOOD (1.63), Away AVERAGE (1.38)

Win probability 1X2

Ulsan (H) 33.7%

ODDS 2.50 · IMPLIED 40.0% EV -15.8%

Draw 28.1%

ODDS 3.35 · IMPLIED 29.9% EV -3.5%

Jeonbuk (A) 38.2%

ODDS 2.70 · IMPLIED 37.0% EV +3.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Ulsan face Jeonbuk in South Korea - K League 1 on Saturday, July 11, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Ulsan a 34% chance, the draw 28% and Jeonbuk 38%, so Jeonbuk are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Ulsan and 1.3 for Jeonbuk (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Ulsan are averaging 1.63 points per game versus 1.38 for Jeonbuk. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +3.1%. This match finished 1-3.

Ulsan vs Jeonbuk Prediction— South Korea - K League 1

Match Preview & Prediction

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