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Ulsan vs Jeonbuk Prediction— South Korea - K League 1

Regular Season - 17 ·Saturday, July 11, 2026, 10:30

Ulsan

PPG 1.63 · HOME

UPCOMING

Jeonbuk

PPG 1.38 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 52.6% vs bookmaker-implied 58.8%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.8%0-111.7%0-27.8%0-33.5%0-4+1.6%1 1-09.6%1-112.9%1-28.6%1-33.8%1-4+1.7%2 2-05.3%2-17.1%2-24.7%2-32.1%2-4+0.9%3 3-01.9%3-12.6%3-21.7%3-30.8%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-00.7%4+-10.9%4+-20.6%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 33.7% 40.0% 2.50 -15.8%

Draw 28.1% 29.9% 3.35 -3.5%

Away win 38.2% 37.0% 2.70 +3.1%

Over 2.5 49.9% 51.3% 1.95 -2.7%

Over 3.5 28.8% 29.4% 3.40 -1.3%

BTTS 52.6% 58.8% 1.70 -10.6%

Home O1.5 35.9% 42.0% 2.38 -14.6%

Away O1.5 38.4% 40.8% 2.45 -5.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 3 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 33%

O2.5 67%

BTTS 33%

Score Hit 100%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 2 23%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob52.6%

D 28% / xG 1.1-1.3 / O2.5 50% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.9%

#2 0–0 8.8%

#3 0–1 11.7%

#4 1–2 8.6%

#5 0–2 7.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Ulsan1.1

Jeonbuk1.3

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 49.9% · O3.5 PROB 28.8%

Form & verdict PPG

ULSAN · PPG 1.63

JEONBUK · PPG 1.38

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

60%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home GOOD (1.63), Away AVERAGE (1.38)

Win probability 1X2

Ulsan (H) 33.7%

ODDS 2.50 · IMPLIED 40.0% EV -15.8%

Draw 28.1%

ODDS 3.35 · IMPLIED 29.9% EV -3.5%

Jeonbuk (A) 38.2%

ODDS 2.70 · IMPLIED 37.0% EV +3.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Ulsan face Jeonbuk in South Korea - K League 1 on Saturday, July 11, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Ulsan a 34% chance, the draw 28% and Jeonbuk 38%, so Jeonbuk are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Ulsan and 1.3 for Jeonbuk (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Ulsan are averaging 1.63 points per game versus 1.38 for Jeonbuk. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +3.1%.

Ulsan vs Jeonbuk Prediction— South Korea - K League 1

Match Preview & Prediction

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