Today / Austria - 2. Liga / St. Polten vs Liefering

St. Polten vs Liefering Prediction— Austria - 2. Liga

Matchday 26 ·Sunday, April 19, 2026, 08:30

St. Polten

PPG 2.50 · HOME

LAST 5

DDDWW

0 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME

Liefering

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

LAST 5

DWWWW

// Model verdict

Home 62% chance

Model probability 68.0% vs bookmaker-implied 59.5% — a clear edge.

+14.2% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.2%0-13.3%0-21.7%0-30.6%0-4+0.2%1 1-07.6%1-17.9%1-24.1%1-31.4%1-4+0.5%2 2-09.3%2-19.6%2-24.9%2-31.7%2-4+0.5%3 3-07.5%3-17.7%3-24.0%3-31.4%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-08.0%4+-18.3%4+-24.3%4+-31.5%4+-4+0.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 68.0% 59.5% 1.68 +14.2%

Draw 17.6% 26.3% 3.80 -33.1%

Away win 14.4% 23.8% 4.20 -39.5%

Over 2.5 67.1% 61.7% 1.62 +8.7%

Over 3.5 45.4% 39.2% 2.55 +15.8%

BTTS 58.7% 63.7% 1.57 -7.8%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 59 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 53%

O2.5 51%

BTTS 54%

Score Hit 46%

ROI -68.6%

Bet Hit 20%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 65%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-0

xG (home)2.4 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob58.7%

H 68% / xG 2.4-1.0 / O2.5 67% / BTTS 59%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 9.6%

#2 2–0 9.3%

#3 1–1 7.9%

#4 3–1 7.7%

#5 1–0 7.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

St. Polten2.4

Liefering1.0

COMBINED 3.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 67.1% · O3.5 PROB 45.4%

Form & verdict PPG

ST. POLTEN · PPG 2.50

LIEFERING · PPG 1.00

🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned

Chance this pick lands

62%

STRONG_HOME

Home team in EXCELLENT form (2.50), Away AVERAGE (1.00) - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

St. Polten (H) 68.0%

ODDS 1.68 · IMPLIED 59.5% EV +14.2%

Draw 17.6%

ODDS 3.80 · IMPLIED 26.3% EV -33.1%

Liefering (A) 14.4%

ODDS 4.20 · IMPLIED 23.8% EV -39.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

St. Polten face Liefering in Austria - 2. Liga on Sunday, April 19, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives St. Polten a 68% chance, the draw 18% and Liefering 14%, so St. Polten are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.4 for St. Polten and 1.0 for Liefering (3.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 67% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 59% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, St. Polten are averaging 2.50 points per game versus 1.00 for Liefering. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +15.8%. This match finished 0-0.

St. Polten vs Liefering Prediction— Austria - 2. Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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