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Schwarz-Weiß Bregenz vs Sturm Graz II Prediction— Austria - 2. Liga

Matchday 4 ·Saturday, August 22, 2026, 15:30

Schwarz-Weiß Bregenz

PPG 1.44 · HOME

LAST 5

LWDWL

3 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Sturm Graz II

PPG 1.02 · AWAY

LAST 5

LWLLW

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.2 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 63.1% vs bookmaker-implied 66.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.9%0-15.4%0-23.7%0-31.7%0-4+0.8%1 1-07.3%1-110.1%1-26.9%1-33.2%1-4+1.5%2 2-06.8%2-19.4%2-26.4%2-33.0%2-4+1.4%3 3-04.2%3-15.8%3-24.0%3-31.8%3-4+0.9%4+ 4+-03.0%4+-14.1%4+-22.8%4+-31.3%4+-4+0.6%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 47.6% 48.8% 2.05 -2.4%

Draw 22.9% 28.2% 3.55 -11.2%

Away win 29.5% 32.3% 3.10 -5.1%

Over 2.5 63.1% 66.7% 1.50 -5.3%

Over 3.5 39.4% 45.5% 2.20 -13.3%

BTTS 62.6% 70.4% 1.42 -11.1%

Home O1.5 54.9% 57.8% 1.73 -5.0%

Away O1.5 41.2% 46.5% 2.15 -11.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 59 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 53%

O2.5 51%

BTTS 54%

Score Hit 46%

ROI -68.6%

Bet Hit 20%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 47%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)1.9 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob62.6%

H 48% / xG 1.9-1.4 / O2.5 63% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.1%

#2 2–1 9.4%

#3 1–2 6.9%

#4 2–0 6.8%

#5 1–0 7.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Schwarz-Weiß Bregenz1.9

Sturm Graz II1.4

COMBINED 3.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.1% · O3.5 PROB 39.4%

Form & verdict PPG

SCHWARZ-WEISS BREGENZ · PPG 1.44

STURM GRAZ II · PPG 1.02

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.48 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Schwarz-Weiß Bregenz (H) 47.6%

ODDS 2.05 · IMPLIED 48.8% EV -2.4%

Draw 22.9%

ODDS 3.55 · IMPLIED 28.2% EV -11.2%

Sturm Graz II (A) 29.5%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -5.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Schwarz-Weiß Bregenz face Sturm Graz II in Austria - 2. Liga on Saturday, August 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Schwarz-Weiß Bregenz a 48% chance, the draw 23% and Sturm Graz II 30%, so Schwarz-Weiß Bregenz are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for Schwarz-Weiß Bregenz and 1.4 for Sturm Graz II (3.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 63% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Schwarz-Weiß Bregenz are averaging 1.44 points per game versus 1.02 for Sturm Graz II. This match finished 3-1.

Schwarz-Weiß Bregenz vs Sturm Graz II Prediction— Austria - 2. Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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