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SKU Amstetten vs WSPG Wels Prediction— Austria - 2. Liga

Matchday 4 ·Friday, August 21, 2026, 16:30

SKU Amstetten

PPG 1.86 · HOME

LAST 5

DWDDL

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

WSPG Wels

PPG 1.41 · AWAY

LAST 5

LWLDL

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 60.3% vs bookmaker-implied 63.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.3%0-16.1%0-23.5%0-31.3%0-4+0.5%1 1-09.5%1-110.9%1-26.2%1-32.4%1-4+0.9%2 2-08.5%2-19.8%2-25.6%2-32.1%2-4+0.8%3 3-05.1%3-15.8%3-23.3%3-31.3%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-03.4%4+-13.9%4+-22.2%4+-30.9%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 51.6% 52.6% 1.90 -2.0%

Draw 23.6% 27.4% 3.65 -8.3%

Away win 24.8% 28.6% 3.50 -7.9%

Over 2.5 59.7% 59.9% 1.67 -0.3%

Over 3.5 36.6% 37.7% 2.65 -3.0%

BTTS 60.3% 63.7% 1.57 -5.3%

Home O1.5 48.8% 56.5% 1.77 -13.6%

Away O1.5 35.6% 37.7% 2.65 -5.7%

League track record ↗

Based on 59 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 53%

O2.5 51%

BTTS 54%

Score Hit 46%

ROI -68.6%

Bet Hit 20%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 53%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob60.3%

H 52% / xG 1.8-1.1 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 60%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1✓ 10.9%

#2 2–1 9.8%

#3 2–0 8.5%

#4 1–0 9.5%

#5 1–2 6.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

SKU Amstetten1.8

WSPG Wels1.1

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.7% · O3.5 PROB 36.6%

Form & verdict PPG

SKU AMSTETTEN · PPG 1.86

WSPG WELS · PPG 1.41

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.65 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

SKU Amstetten (H) 51.6%

ODDS 1.90 · IMPLIED 52.6% EV -2.0%

Draw 23.6%

ODDS 3.65 · IMPLIED 27.4% EV -8.3%

WSPG Wels (A) 24.8%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -7.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

SKU Amstetten face WSPG Wels in Austria - 2. Liga on Friday, August 21, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives SKU Amstetten a 52% chance, the draw 24% and WSPG Wels 25%, so SKU Amstetten are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for SKU Amstetten and 1.1 for WSPG Wels (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, SKU Amstetten are averaging 1.86 points per game versus 1.41 for WSPG Wels. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +2.7%. This match finished 1-1.

SKU Amstetten vs WSPG Wels Prediction— Austria - 2. Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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