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Sturm Graz II vs Rapid Wien II Prediction— Austria - 2. Liga

Matchday 5 ·Sunday, August 30, 2026, 08:30

Sturm Graz II

PPG 1.02 · HOME

LAST 5

LWLLW

5 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Rapid Wien II

PPG 1.73 · AWAY

LAST 5

WLWLL

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 60.6% vs bookmaker-implied 71.4%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.5%0-18.2%0-26.2%0-33.1%0-4+1.6%1 1-07.7%1-111.6%1-28.6%1-34.3%1-4+2.3%2 2-05.4%2-18.1%2-26.1%2-33.0%2-4+1.6%3 3-02.5%3-13.8%3-22.8%3-31.4%3-4+0.7%4+ 4+-01.2%4+-11.8%4+-21.4%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 38.6% 36.4% 2.75 +6.2%

Draw 24.3% 27.0% 3.70 -6.0%

Away win 37.1% 45.5% 2.20 -18.4%

Over 2.5 59.7% 66.7% 1.50 -10.4%

Over 3.5 36.7% 45.5% 2.20 -19.3%

BTTS 60.6% 71.4% 1.40 -15.2%

Home O1.5 40.0% 50.0% 2.00 -20.0%

Away O1.5 41.7% 56.5% 1.77 -26.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 59 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 53%

O2.5 51%

BTTS 54%

Score Hit 46%

ROI -68.6%

Bet Hit 20%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 44%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 5-2

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob60.6%

H 39% / xG 1.4-1.5 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 61%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.6%

#2 2–1 8.1%

#3 1–2 8.6%

#4 1–0 7.7%

#5 0–1 8.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Sturm Graz II1.4

Rapid Wien II1.5

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.7% · O3.5 PROB 36.7%

Form & verdict PPG

STURM GRAZ II · PPG 1.02

RAPID WIEN II · PPG 1.73

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap -0.09 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Sturm Graz II (H) 38.6%

ODDS 2.75 · IMPLIED 36.4% EV +6.2%

Draw 24.3%

ODDS 3.70 · IMPLIED 27.0% EV -6.0%

Rapid Wien II (A) 37.1%

ODDS 2.20 · IMPLIED 45.5% EV -18.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Sturm Graz II face Rapid Wien II in Austria - 2. Liga on Sunday, August 30, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Sturm Graz II a 39% chance, the draw 24% and Rapid Wien II 37%, so Sturm Graz II are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Sturm Graz II and 1.5 for Rapid Wien II (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 61% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Sturm Graz II are averaging 1.02 points per game versus 1.73 for Rapid Wien II. This match finished 5-2.

Sturm Graz II vs Rapid Wien II Prediction— Austria - 2. Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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