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First Vienna vs SKU Amstetten Prediction— Austria - 2. Liga

Matchday 5 ·Friday, August 28, 2026, 16:30

First Vienna

PPG 1.61 · HOME

LAST 5

WLDWW

1 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

SKU Amstetten

PPG 1.32 · AWAY

LAST 5

DWDDL

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 59.9% vs bookmaker-implied 65.4%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.7%0-16.9%0-24.2%0-31.7%0-4+0.7%1 1-09.4%1-111.4%1-26.9%1-32.8%1-4+1.1%2 2-07.8%2-19.4%2-25.7%2-32.3%2-4+0.9%3 3-04.3%3-15.2%3-23.2%3-31.3%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-02.6%4+-13.1%4+-21.9%4+-30.8%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 45.7% 44.4% 2.25 +2.8%

Draw 24.6% 28.6% 3.50 -8.3%

Away win 29.7% 36.4% 2.75 -11.0%

Over 2.5 59.7% 59.9% 1.67 -0.3%

Over 3.5 36.7% 38.2% 2.62 -3.9%

BTTS 59.9% 65.4% 1.53 -8.3%

Home O1.5 48.9% 51.3% 1.95 -4.6%

Away O1.5 36.6% 44.4% 2.25 -17.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 59 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 53%

O2.5 51%

BTTS 54%

Score Hit 46%

ROI -68.6%

Bet Hit 20%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 47%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob59.9%

H 46% / xG 1.7-1.2 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 60%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.4%

#2 2–1 9.4%

#3 1–2 6.9%

#4 2–0 7.8%

#5 1–0✓ 9.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

First Vienna1.7

SKU Amstetten1.2

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.7% · O3.5 PROB 36.7%

Form & verdict PPG

FIRST VIENNA · PPG 1.61

SKU AMSTETTEN · PPG 1.32

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.45 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

First Vienna (H) 45.7%

ODDS 2.25 · IMPLIED 44.4% EV +2.8%

Draw 24.6%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -8.3%

SKU Amstetten (A) 29.7%

ODDS 2.75 · IMPLIED 36.4% EV -11.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

First Vienna face SKU Amstetten in Austria - 2. Liga on Friday, August 28, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives First Vienna a 46% chance, the draw 25% and SKU Amstetten 30%, so First Vienna are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for First Vienna and 1.2 for SKU Amstetten (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, First Vienna are averaging 1.61 points per game versus 1.32 for SKU Amstetten. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +2.3%. This match finished 1-0.

First Vienna vs SKU Amstetten Prediction— Austria - 2. Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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