Today / Finland - Ykkosliga / PK-35 vs KaPa

PK-35 vs KaPa Prediction— Finland - Ykkosliga

Group Stage ·Friday, July 10, 2026, 16:00

PK-35

PPG 1.83 · HOME

UPCOMING

KaPa

PPG 1.17 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 62.0% vs bookmaker-implied 62.5%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.2%0-15.4%0-21.7%0-30.4%0-4+0.1%1 1-015.2%1-19.9%1-23.2%1-30.7%1-4+0.1%2 2-014.1%2-19.1%2-23.0%2-30.6%2-4+0.1%3 3-08.6%3-15.6%3-21.8%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-06.1%4+-13.9%4+-21.3%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 62.0% 62.5% 1.60 -0.8%

Draw 20.7% 27.0% 3.70 -14.1%

Away win 17.3% 20.0% 5.00 -8.1%

Over 2.5 53.8% 55.6% 1.80 -3.2%

Over 3.5 32.9% 33.3% 3.00 -1.3%

BTTS 48.4% 56.5% 1.77 -14.3%

Home O1.5 55.1% 59.9% 1.67 -8.0%

Away O1.5 20.9% 28.2% 3.55 -15.5%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 0 38%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)0.6 BTTS prob48.4%

H 62% / xG 1.8-0.6 / O2.5 54% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 14.1%

#2 1–0 15.2%

#3 1–1 9.9%

#4 0–0 8.2%

#5 2–1 9.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

PK-351.8

KaPa0.6

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.8% · O3.5 PROB 32.9%

Form & verdict PPG

PK-35 · PPG 1.83

KAPA · PPG 1.17

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.83) > Away AVERAGE (1.17)

Win probability 1X2

PK-35 (H) 62.0%

ODDS 1.60 · IMPLIED 62.5% EV -0.8%

Draw 20.7%

ODDS 3.70 · IMPLIED 27.0% EV -14.1%

KaPa (A) 17.3%

ODDS 5.00 · IMPLIED 20.0% EV -8.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

PK-35 face KaPa in Finland - Ykkosliga on Friday, July 10, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives PK-35 a 62% chance, the draw 21% and KaPa 17%, so PK-35 are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for PK-35 and 0.6 for KaPa (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, PK-35 are averaging 1.83 points per game versus 1.17 for KaPa.

PK-35 vs KaPa Prediction— Finland - Ykkosliga

Match Preview & Prediction

More Finland - Ykkosliga Predictions