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AIFK vs Ilves B Prediction— Finland - Kakkonen Group B

Group B ·Friday, July 10, 2026, 15:30

AIFK

PPG 2.50 · HOME

UPCOMING

Ilves B

PPG 1.80 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 4.4 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 72.1% vs bookmaker-implied 73.5%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.2%0-11.9%0-21.5%0-30.8%0-4+0.4%1 1-03.5%1-15.5%1-24.3%1-32.2%1-4+1.2%2 2-05.0%2-17.8%2-26.1%2-33.2%2-4+1.7%3 3-04.7%3-17.3%3-25.7%3-33.0%3-4+1.6%4+ 4+-06.6%4+-110.2%4+-28.0%4+-34.2%4+-4+2.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 56.4% 62.5% 1.60 -9.8%

Draw 19.1% 26.3% 3.80 -16.4%

Away win 24.4% 23.8% 4.20 +1.5%

Over 2.5 72.1% 73.5% 1.36 -1.9%

Over 3.5 52.6% 54.6% 1.83 -3.7%

BTTS 69.4% 73.5% 1.36 -5.6%

Home O1.5 75.2% 71.4% 1.40 +5.3%

Away O1.5 50.2% 42.0% 2.38 +19.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 16 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 69%

O2.5 69%

BTTS 69%

Score Hit 19%

ROI -13.8%

Bet Hit 67%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

4 – 1 64%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.8 xG (away)1.6 BTTS prob69.4%

H 56% / xG 2.8-1.6 / O2.5 72% / BTTS 69%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 7.8%

#2 3–1 7.3%

#3 1–1 5.5%

#4 2–2 6.1%

#5 3–2 5.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

AIFK2.8

Ilves B1.6

COMBINED 4.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 72.1% · O3.5 PROB 52.6%

Form & verdict PPG

AIFK · PPG 2.50

ILVES B · PPG 1.80

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: EXCELLENT (2.50) > Away GOOD (1.80)

Win probability 1X2

AIFK (H) 56.4%

ODDS 1.60 · IMPLIED 62.5% EV -9.8%

Draw 19.1%

ODDS 3.80 · IMPLIED 26.3% EV -16.4%

Ilves B (A) 24.4%

ODDS 4.20 · IMPLIED 23.8% EV +1.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

AIFK face Ilves B in Finland - Kakkonen Group B on Friday, July 10, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives AIFK a 56% chance, the draw 19% and Ilves B 24%, so AIFK are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.8 for AIFK and 1.6 for Ilves B (4.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 72% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 69% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, AIFK are averaging 2.50 points per game versus 1.80 for Ilves B. The best value bet our model finds is AwayO15, with an expected value of +19.5%.

AIFK vs Ilves B Prediction— Finland - Kakkonen Group B

Match Preview & Prediction

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