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AIFK vs Ilves B Prediction— Finland - Kakkonen Group B

Group B · Matchday 12 ·Friday, July 10, 2026, 15:30

AIFK

PPG 2.50 · HOME

LAST 5

LWLWW

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME O1.5

Ilves B

PPG 1.80 · AWAY

LAST 5

WLWLL

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

Model probability 75.2% vs bookmaker-implied 71.4% — a real, if thin, edge.

+5.3% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.2%0-11.9%0-21.5%0-30.8%0-4+0.4%1 1-03.5%1-15.5%1-24.3%1-32.2%1-4+1.2%2 2-05.0%2-17.8%2-26.1%2-33.2%2-4+1.7%3 3-04.7%3-17.3%3-25.7%3-33.0%3-4+1.6%4+ 4+-06.6%4+-110.2%4+-28.0%4+-34.2%4+-4+2.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 56.4% 62.5% 1.60 -9.8%

Draw 19.1% 26.3% 3.80 -16.4%

Away win 24.4% 23.8% 4.20 +1.5%

Over 2.5 72.1% 73.5% 1.36 -1.9%

Over 3.5 52.6% 54.6% 1.83 -3.7%

BTTS 69.4% 73.5% 1.36 -5.6%

Home O1.5 75.2% 71.4% 1.40 +5.3%

Away O1.5 50.2% 42.0% 2.38 +19.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 54 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 69%

O2.5 65%

BTTS 65%

Score Hit 44%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

4 – 1 64%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)2.8 xG (away)1.6 BTTS prob69.4%

H 56% / xG 2.8-1.6 / O2.5 72% / BTTS 69%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 7.8%

#2 3–1 7.3%

#3 1–1✓ 5.5%

#4 2–2 6.1%

#5 3–2 5.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

AIFK2.8

Ilves B1.6

COMBINED 4.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 72.1% · O3.5 PROB 52.6%

Form & verdict PPG

AIFK · PPG 2.50

ILVES B · PPG 1.80

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: EXCELLENT (2.50) > Away GOOD (1.80)

Win probability 1X2

AIFK (H) 56.4%

ODDS 1.60 · IMPLIED 62.5% EV -9.8%

Draw 19.1%

ODDS 3.80 · IMPLIED 26.3% EV -16.4%

Ilves B (A) 24.4%

ODDS 4.20 · IMPLIED 23.8% EV +1.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

AIFK face Ilves B in Finland - Kakkonen Group B on Friday, July 10, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives AIFK a 56% chance, the draw 19% and Ilves B 24%, so AIFK are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.8 for AIFK and 1.6 for Ilves B (4.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 72% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 69% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, AIFK are averaging 2.50 points per game versus 1.80 for Ilves B. The best value bet our model finds is AwayO15, with an expected value of +19.5%. This match finished 1-1.

AIFK vs Ilves B Prediction— Finland - Kakkonen Group B

Match Preview & Prediction

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