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South Melbourne vs Oakleigh C. Prediction— Australia - Victoria NPL

Regular Season - 9 ·Sunday, April 19, 2026, 05:30

South Melbourne

PPG 2.00 · HOME

0 – 3

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Oakleigh C.

PPG 1.67 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.7 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 70.7% vs bookmaker-implied 56.5% — a clear edge.

+25.1% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.6%0-13.8%0-22.8%0-31.4%0-4+0.7%1 1-05.7%1-18.3%1-26.1%1-33.0%1-4+1.5%2 2-06.2%2-19.1%2-26.7%2-33.3%2-4+1.6%3 3-04.5%3-16.6%3-24.9%3-32.4%3-4+1.2%4+ 4+-04.1%4+-16.0%4+-24.4%4+-32.2%4+-4+1.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 54.1% 32.3% 3.10 +67.7%

Draw 20.5% 29.4% 3.40 -30.3%

Away win 25.5% 48.8% 2.05 -47.7%

Over 2.5 70.7% 56.5% 1.77 +25.1%

Over 3.5 49.6% 33.9% 2.95 +46.3%

BTTS 68.3% 61.7% 1.62 +10.7%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 79 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 57%

O2.5 53%

BTTS 47%

Score Hit 39%

ROI -12.0%

Bet Hit 57%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 64%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-3

xG (home)2.2 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob68.3%

H 54% / xG 2.2-1.5 / O2.5 71% / BTTS 68%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 9.1%

#2 1–1 8.3%

#3 2–2 6.7%

#4 3–1 6.6%

#5 2–0 6.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

South Melbourne2.2

Oakleigh C.1.5

COMBINED 3.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 70.7% · O3.5 PROB 49.6%

Form & verdict PPG

SOUTH MELBOURNE · PPG 2.00

OAKLEIGH C. · PPG 1.67

✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: EXCELLENT (2.00) > Away GOOD (1.67)

Win probability 1X2

South Melbourne (H) 54.1%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV +67.7%

Draw 20.5%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -30.3%

Oakleigh C. (A) 25.5%

ODDS 2.05 · IMPLIED 48.8% EV -47.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

South Melbourne face Oakleigh C. in Australia - Victoria NPL on Sunday, April 19, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives South Melbourne a 54% chance, the draw 21% and Oakleigh C. 26%, so South Melbourne are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.2 for South Melbourne and 1.5 for Oakleigh C. (3.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 71% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 68% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, South Melbourne are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 1.67 for Oakleigh C.. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +67.7%. This match finished 0-3.

South Melbourne vs Oakleigh C. Prediction— Australia - Victoria NPL

Match Preview & Prediction

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