Today / Canada - Canadian Premier League / Vancouver FC vs York Utd

Vancouver FC vs York Utd Prediction— Canada - Canadian Premier League

Group Stage ·Saturday, July 4, 2026, 23:00

Vancouver FC

PPG 1.17 · HOME

4 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

York Utd

PPG 1.25 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 55.6% vs bookmaker-implied 57.8%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.2%0-110.3%0-25.7%0-32.1%0-4+0.8%1 1-011.7%1-113.0%1-27.3%1-32.7%1-4+1.0%2 2-07.4%2-18.3%2-24.6%2-31.7%2-4+0.6%3 3-03.1%3-13.5%3-21.9%3-30.7%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-01.3%4+-11.5%4+-20.8%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 46.0% 51.5% 1.94 -10.8%

Draw 26.0% 29.9% 3.35 -7.7%

Away win 28.0% 27.8% 3.60 +0.5%

Over 2.5 53.3% 51.8% 1.93 +2.9%

Over 3.5 33.2% 29.9% 3.35 +11.2%

BTTS 55.6% 57.8% 1.73 -3.8%

Home O1.5 42.8% 50.0% 2.00 -14.4%

Away O1.5 35.9% 32.3% 3.10 +11.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 13 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 69%

O2.5 46%

BTTS 54%

Score Hit 31%

ROI 46.3%

Bet Hit 86%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 27%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 4-0

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob55.6%

H 46% / xG 1.3-1.1 / O2.5 53% / BTTS 56%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.0%

#2 0–0 9.2%

#3 1–0 11.7%

#4 0–1 10.3%

#5 2–1 8.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Vancouver FC1.3

York Utd1.1

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.3% · O3.5 PROB 33.2%

Form & verdict PPG

VANCOUVER FC · PPG 1.17

YORK UTD · PPG 1.25

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

60%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.17), Away AVERAGE (1.25)

Win probability 1X2

Vancouver FC (H) 46.0%

ODDS 1.94 · IMPLIED 51.5% EV -10.8%

Draw 26.0%

ODDS 3.35 · IMPLIED 29.9% EV -7.7%

York Utd (A) 28.0%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV +0.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Vancouver FC face York Utd in Canada - Canadian Premier League on Saturday, July 4, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Vancouver FC a 46% chance, the draw 26% and York Utd 28%, so Vancouver FC are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Vancouver FC and 1.1 for York Utd (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 56% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Vancouver FC are averaging 1.17 points per game versus 1.25 for York Utd. The best value bet our model finds is AwayO15, with an expected value of +11.3%. This match finished 4-0.

Vancouver FC vs York Utd Prediction— Canada - Canadian Premier League

Match Preview & Prediction

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