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Forge vs HFX Wanderers Prediction— Canada - Canadian Premier League

Group Stage ·Wednesday, June 10, 2026, 23:00

Forge

PPG 2.50 · HOME

1 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

HFX Wanderers

PPG 0.80 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 56.4% vs bookmaker-implied 70.9%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-016.0%0-16.2%0-21.2%0-30.2%0-4+0.0%1 1-023.1%1-19.0%1-21.7%1-30.2%1-4+0.0%2 2-016.7%2-16.5%2-21.3%2-30.2%2-4+0.0%3 3-08.0%3-13.1%3-20.6%3-30.1%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-04.0%4+-11.5%4+-20.3%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 56.4% 70.9% 1.41 -20.5%

Draw 24.6% 25.3% 3.95 -1.7%

Away win 18.9% 12.7% 7.90 +29.6%

Over 2.5 37.8% 51.3% 1.95 -26.3%

Over 3.5 18.9% 29.9% 3.35 -22.0%

BTTS 44.2% 47.6% 2.10 -7.2%

Home O1.5 42.7% 61.7% 1.62 -30.8%

Away O1.5 0.0% 18.2% 5.50 -60.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 20 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 55%

O2.5 55%

BTTS 65%

Score Hit 40%

ROI 13.8%

Bet Hit 69%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 48%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)0.4 BTTS prob44.2%

H 56% / xG 1.4-0.4 / U2.5 38% / NoBTTS 44%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0✓ 23.1%

#2 0–0 16.0%

#3 2–0 16.7%

#4 1–1 9.0%

#5 3–0 8.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Forge1.4

HFX Wanderers0.4

COMBINED 1.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 37.8% · O3.5 PROB 18.9%

Form & verdict PPG

FORGE · PPG 2.50

HFX WANDERERS · PPG 0.80

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value | B...

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.50) vs P(Home)=56.4%

Win probability 1X2

Forge (H) 56.4%

ODDS 1.41 · IMPLIED 70.9% EV -20.5%

Draw 24.6%

ODDS 3.95 · IMPLIED 25.3% EV -1.7%

HFX Wanderers (A) 18.9%

ODDS 7.90 · IMPLIED 12.7% EV +29.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Forge face HFX Wanderers in Canada - Canadian Premier League on Wednesday, June 10, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Forge a 56% chance, the draw 25% and HFX Wanderers 19%, so Forge are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Forge and 0.4 for HFX Wanderers (1.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 38% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 44% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Forge are averaging 2.50 points per game versus 0.80 for HFX Wanderers. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +29.6%. This match finished 1-0.

Forge vs HFX Wanderers Prediction— Canada - Canadian Premier League

Match Preview & Prediction

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